Political decision-making

The National Interest.
Politicians are supposed to generally act “in the national interest”, though how that is defined can depend on whether you take a long or short term view of national and international politics. But more likely on your own political outlook - so one man‘s “national interest“ can be another man‘s “unconscionable betrayal“.

Hindsight
The gift of 20:20 hindsight is granted by the Gods to those “hurlers on the ditch” who don’t actually have to make difficult decisions, which must often be taken in moments of crisis and on the basis of imperfect information (ref Rumsfeld‘s famous quote). The media, pubs and taxis are full of such “hurlers” who generally claim “I told you so”, regardless of how many changing opinions they may have offered on the topic under discussion.

So, what would happen if you could give politicians the benefit of hindsight as they take momentous decisions?

"Britain's national interest" was Neville Chamberlain’s justification for signing the 1938 Munich Agreement which betrayed Czechoslovakia to the Germans. Yet the same man declared war on Germany in September 1939 when the Germans ignored the Anglo-French ultimatum to withdraw their troops from Poland.

If our “20:20 hindsight man” could have taken Chamberlain aside and shown him the outcome of WWII, how then would he have acted?

He’d have seen that
(a) Britain and it’s allies would eventually win the war
(b) that it would develop into a worldwide conflict, with over 50m killed and many millions more injured, wounded, displaced
(c) that Hitler's domination of eastern Europe would be exchanged for Stalin's domination of the same territory
(d) that a financially bankrupt and militarily exhausted Britain would be unable to retain control of her worldwide Empire, which would disintegrate over the following 20 years, starting in 1947 with India, “the jewel in the crown”.

Would Chamberlain’s government have made the same decision in 1939 in light of this information? What would have best served Britain’s “national interest”?

Presumably if Hitler had been offered the same hindsight, he'd have promptly withdrawn from Poland and been satisfied, at least for a while, with his empire of Germany, Austria & Czechoslovakia. With fellow fascists still in power, Mussolini in Italy and Franco in Spain, how would European politics have developed over the past seven decades?

Would there now be a statue of Oswald Mosley, 1st Duke of Oxbridge and former prime minister, adorning Westminster's College Green?

Taking the michael

Not content with taking the michael out of Michael McDowell in blog, I've emailed the following to several newspapers and a variety of radio current affairs shows. While they may not air it, hopefully it will be the subject of a laugh down in the pub and, in Dublin's tight media/politics circle, it will eventually get back to the great man himself.

All year-end reviews of politics in 2006 include Justice Minister Michael McDowell’s extraordinary “Dr Goebbels” outburst, which was itself quite ironic, coming as it did from the most prolific propagandist seen for many decades in Irish politics.

I was amused to discover that the real Dr Goebbels was the author of a semi-autobiographical novel titled “Michael”, which was first published in 1929. The English translation of “Michael” is currently available from Amazon, surely the perfect gift for the man who has almost everything?

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Independent & the Irish Examiner

Batting for the batless

This is largely a rehash of some earlier blogs but I've reproduced it here as it's published today in the Irish Times. I wasn't expecting them to publish such a long letter so I'm pleased to see it in print.

LACK OF POLITICAL LEADERSHIP TO RIGHT WRONGS AGAINST TRAVELLERS

Madam, - During the recent Traveller Focus Week The Irish Times carried a number of challenging items regarding travellers. Since then, the outcome of the Padraig Nally case has, perhaps, served to obscure the fundamental issues which still require resolution.

Felim O'Rourke (Opinion & Analysis, December 4th) presented a cogent argument that nomadism is a major contributory factor to Travellers' social exclusion and criminality.
Brid O'Brien, policy officer with Pavee Point, responded by pointing out that there are countless examples of Travellers living in standard and mixed housing for generations who were excluded from local jobs, education, training and social activities. Meanwhile, Lorna Siggins reported on a Galway Traveller Movement study which found that Travellers were so used to discrimination that they rarely complained.

The 1995 Task Force on the Travelling Community recommended the provision of 3,100 units of additional Traveller accommodation. This was to include 2,200 Traveller-specific units of accommodation (halting sites and group housing units). The Housing (Traveller Accommodation) Act, 1998 was subsequently enacted in order to ensure provision of Traveller-specific accommodation by local authorities. The 1998 Act also specifies that provision should be made by local authorities for Travellers' annual patterns of movement.

In its January 2005 submission to the UN's Committee for Eradication of Racial Discrimination, the Geneva-based NGO Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions reported that progress in the provision of the traveller-specific housing was wholly inadequate. Together with a very significant number of evictions of travellers by gardaí, under Section 10 of the Housing (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 1992 and Section 24 of the 2002 "Trespass Act", this had resulted in an intolerable situation for travellers and one where the Government of Ireland was in breach of its obligation under the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.

It is difficult to make any compelling case in support of nomadism, in terms of providing appropriate quality of life opportunities for Travellers, but I believe that Felim O'Rourke failed to address the current nature of that nomadism and the impact it might have on issues such as criminality. Much traveller nomadism is now involuntary - travellers are moved on by gardaí at 24 hours' notice, evicted under Section 10 of the 1992 Housing Act or Section 24 of the 2002 "Trespass Act". These evictions occur despite the fact that often there is nowhere for these families to go. Surely such evictions must severely disrupt any prospect of children receiving an education, diminish family access to services such as health and social welfare and mar any prospect of employment in the legal economy?

It would be very hard to argue with Brid O'Brien's contention that settled travellers are still treated as pariahs in Irish society, or with the inference of the Galway Traveller Movement finding regarding discrimination: it is routine and ubiquitous. In such circumstances, which of us would be model citizens or ideal neighbours?

All members of society have both rights and obligations. We, the settled community, have clearly failed in our obligations to provide appropriate accommodation, as identified by the 1995 Task Force on The Travelling Community. Yet we demand that Travellers meet their obligations to a society that treats them as pariahs.

Surely natural justice places the greater onus on the strong to first deliver on their obligations, before making demands on the weak? Only then can we justly adopt anything like a zero tolerance approach.

I, too, would like to see an end to nomadism and a concerted effort to normalise the life outcomes for travellers, but blaming the patient for being ill isn't going to achieve much.
National and local government has failed to provide the necessary leadership and NIMBYism has meant that accommodation needs identified over 10 years ago have still not been provided, despite our much-vaunted economic prosperity. The current situation is not only grossly unjust to Travellers; it is not working for the settled community either.

Where is the political leadership on this important issue? - Yours, etc,

Traveller Ping-Pong with Brenda

Ping (Incoming)

Peter, We definitely are listening to different travellers spokesmen - I've yet to hear any of them come out, proactively, to condemn bad traveller behaviour, like that wedding in Kildare last month where the table cloths and floors ended up splattered with blood after a savage battle - all you will hear are complaints and prosecutions against hoteliers who will refuse to accept such celebrations in future. Let's see if we can figure out why that restaurant might be reluctant to roll out the red carpet for a traveller hooley next time? And I was reported to the Equality Authority by Pavee Point for having the temerity to ask them for a comment on the disgusting state in which a gang of travellers left the Sugar Loaf a few years back - all I did was ask whether, if it did indeed turn out to be the work of travellers, they'd be prepared to condemn it!! And I don't know why you conclude that only 'involuntary sterilisation' will stop them producing large families in inadequate accomodation - none of the rest of us need to be sterilised to stop us having 15 children we can't afford, or is it the case that travellers haven't yet figured out where all these kids are coming from? It's called personal responsibility, Peter, and it's time somebody started expecting it from the travelling community.

And I don't believe for a second that there are 1000 traveller families without accomodation - there are only around 1000 traveller families in the whole country, and certainly I know that any I have ever spoken to, or heard interviewed, will tell you, as one father of 11 told me on the radio recently, that they were given houses but, for one reason or another, left them - either because they had trashed the place or else they couldn't get on with the neighbours. And it doesn't seem to matter whether these neighbours are settled or travellers - in the latter case, in fact, they're more likely to get involved in feuding with other families. I don't believe that there is any need for positive discrimination in a workplace that has needed to import a quarter of a million workers - the travellers and their apologists really need to start asking themselves why they are viewed as they are by the settled community, and they need to start addressing it themselves, rather than lecturing the rest of us. That course of action is clearly not working. Regards, Brenda

Pong (Outgoing)

Brenda, A January 2005 submission by the Centre On Housing Rights & Evictions (a Geneva-based NGO) to the UN’s Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, quotes “the Department of Environment estimates that 700 Traveller families currently live by the roadside, while another 350 are sharing accommodation with relatives to avoid eviction from the roadside.” Try visiting http://www.itmtrav.com/accommodation.html which provides an extensive breakdown of Dept of Environment data regarding total number of travellers and where they are accommodated. It claims approx 25,000 travellers in Ireland, while the Dept of Environment identifies 6,453 families and a detailed breakdown of their accomodation status - it seems they may not all be breeding at the rate you promote.

As for Pavee Point reporting you to the Equality Authority, is it just possible that your inquiry regarding the Sugarloaf may have been expressed in a tone similar to your Sunday Times article and your emails - hardly an example of disinterested journalistic impartiality. Regards etc

What's McDowell reading?

Could it be true that bedside reading for Michael McDowell is "Michael" a semi-autobiographical novel written by Joseph Goebbels and published in 1929?

Or is it just a foul rumour spread by the judiciary?

This books is real. Anyone wishing to send him a copy should note that he’s highly sensitive and the English translation “Michael: A Novel” is available from Amazon for $45.

From Amazon Website re "Michael" by Joseph Goebbels
Editorial Reviews
From Publishers Weekly

This poorly written "novel" in diary form by Hitler's calculating and sinister propaganda minister is, not surprisingly, a compilation of vicious Nazi doctrine. First published in 1929, four years before the Nazis seized power in Germany, it was so widely read that it went through 17 editions and appears here in English for the first time. The story concerns a former soldier who finds his university studies hold little meaning in Weimar Germany, which is beset by economic hardship and revolutionary stirrings. Michael abandons his education to help rebuild Germany for the Volk, and his romantic desire to die for the cause becomes reality when he perishes in a coal mine where he works as a labourer. This book is filled with vituperations against Jews, intellectuals, liberals, utopias and Leninism. Its educational value for students of Nazism is debatable since it contains no introduction placing Goebbels or his times in its historical and social context.
Copyright 1987 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Still Travelling

Following my email to Brenda Power regarding her opinion piece in the Sunday Times and their subsequent publication of a heavily abridged version of that email on their letters page, I followed this up with another email to her - basically my blog of 18th Dec 2006 titled “We were travellers too”.
Brenda has responded today - her email is reproduced below. I thought her original article was repellent and her email merely confirms her prejudices. Nevertheless, I’ve responded in a way I think appropriate.

Hello Peter, thanks for your very thoughtful email - I take your point entirely about the Irish who emigrated to Britain in tougher times, and the fact that they were travellers, too, but the distinction I would make is that those people went there prepared to work and work damn hard to make a living - they didn't arrive and start making demands and enquiries about their rights and entitlements, getting involved in crime and laying waste to public amenities and then blaming it all on their culture. I am sure that there are settled travellers who experience discrimination, but the question is whose fault is that, exactly? I really do believe that the travellers spokespeople began to condemn the bad, criminal behaviour, and to isolate those responsible from the very many law-abiding travellers who are willing to work hard and get on with their neighbours, those same people wouldn't encounter nearly as much prejudice and suspicion as they do. Until they start isolating the bad apples, rather than championing their case and claiming the behaviour is part of their culture, they can hardly be surprised if they all get tarred with the same brush. Thanks again, and happy new year, Brenda Power

My response, emailed to her today:

Brenda,
I’m sure you’re familiar with the expression “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” which is much favoured by politicians. They’re generally much better at the first bit than the second, where they're usually hopeless as solutions are invariably complex, multi-faceted, intergenerational and expensive. And frequently fail.

We’ve obviously been listening to different traveller spokespeople - the ones I hear do condemn the criminal elements, but they try in vain to have the “tough on the causes of crime” agenda discussed at the same time. Is this perhaps what you interpret as “ claiming the behaviour is part of their culture”?

Have you ever considered why nationalist communities in Northern Ireland didn’t hand over IRA killers to the RUC? Because they hated the RUC and they rightly feared the IRA. The gardai are the people who routinely “move on” travellers under threat of confiscation of
their homes and vehicles, knowing full well that they’re simply moving the problem down the road to someone else’s patch but causing maximum disruption to a traveller family. How likely is it that this activity will foster a culture where non-criminal travellers will co-operate with the gardai?

Until we start offering them better choices than “f*** off and die” or perhaps involuntary sterilisation to stop them breeding large families in their caravans, we condemn them to live in squalor and largely outside legal society.

The purpose of my email was to illustrate that it took a couple of generations to “socialise” many of us, the settled community. It can be done, but not by some quick-fix solution or simply getting the gardai to crack down on travellers.

Until prominent commentators like yourself start balancing your condemnations with proposed solutions e.g. calling on National & Local Govt to meet agreed obligations to provide them with
accommodation (there are still approx 1,000 families with none) and calling on employers to actively recruit members of the travelling community, and recognising that this will be a long haul, there will be no solution. There’s a challenge for you!

And finally, remember the pre-Christmas concern for travellers from Heathrow delayed by fog, which dominated the airwaves last week? How ironic that concern must have sounded to the permanent traveller listening to the radio in a caravan while keeping an eye out for the
garda car and the warning to "move on"? Happy Christmas, me arse.

Regards, etc..

Revenge of the knee-high men.

Michael McDowell has just learned the hard way that it doesn’t pay to mix it with the judges or with small men.

Earlier this year he got away with his “knee-high” jibe at Richard Bruton which was deliberately double-edged. Though purporting to be a dig at the Fine Gael man’s lack of political achievement, it also hit home at the target’s very small physical stature. It was typical of the bully in McDowell, essentially a political boot-boy who enjoys street-fighting.

On RTE’s Drivetime on Friday, retired High Court Judge Feargus Flood, another man of diminutive physical stature, was interviewed by Mary Wilson. He expressed his very high regard for Mr McDowell's brilliance in the most glowing terms. However, he then added that the one fault Mr McDowell had in life was that he "speaks first and thinks second".

Although Friday was only one away from the shortest day of the year, the early evening skies around Dublin 6 were lit up by the orange glow from the incandescent rage of the Minister on hearing the broadcast.

For this was no dig from a political opponent which could be discounted as the normal cut and thrust of party politics. This was a considered opinion from a man who once sat on the second highest court in the land, presided over the tribunal which bears his name and has probably never uttered a nakedly political comment in public in his life.

Allied to this is Justice Flood’s professional and personal acquaintance with Mr McDowell in both the Law Library and the courts, which adds significant weight to the credibility of the comment.

This is a damning intellectual indictment of a serving Government minister, particularly one in a the very sensitive Ministry of Justice. It won’t do much either for Michael’s credibility as leader of a political party.

McDowell has been long overdue his come-uppence, though I’m sure he wasn’t expecting it from this particular knee-high quarter.

Txt Smrtns

I was surprised to hear on the morning news that the Samaritans now have a text-based counselling service which is aimed at younger people. It was launched some months ago and they claim that it’s quite popular, with thousands of text messages received each week.

You can see the attraction for the Samaritans - you could easily devise intelligent software to automate the responses, eliminating the need for round-the-clock volunteers. They will be able to provide a more extensive service at lower cost.

But I find it hard to imagine someone who needs the help of the Samaritans choosing to communicate via something as impersonal as text when they need someone to talk them down off a tall building or bridge.

Personally, I hate the abbreviated txt msgs favoured by youthful texters and those silly hieroglyphics :-) which often accompany them.

I can see myself manning the phones some evening and trying, in vain, to decipher a call for help written in this gibberish. In my dream I finally snap and, in frustration, text back “Jump, you worthless turd”.

The Godfather speaks

As Don Corleone will readily confirm, being a godfather can be a bit of a curate’s egg. News that my godson recently attained 1st class honours and was awarded a gold medal was somewhat offset by the ongoing concern about his paternity and maternity. I’m convinced that someone, somewhere is rearing an idiot amid a clutch of genius siblings.

Enough of that - imagine my pride when I heard that my godson had chosen to follow in my cranky footsteps and his first letter had been published in yesterday’s Irish Times. Until I read the actual letter in question, which sucks up to the liberal, feminist, lesbian bias of the Irish Times - where letters must be addressed to “Madam”!

I haven't read the contribution from Susan Philips which his letter refers to, but she sounds like my type of gal. One can only suppose that he was trying to impress the mot with his liberal stance, rather than seeking to out himself.

However, getting liberal views published on such topics in the Irish Times is, frankly, far too easy. The real challenge is to get something right-wing, illiberal, conservative, homophobic, pro-Bush, pro-war, pro-catholic church etc etc. . I’ll have to select a suitable topic and set him a challenge for the new year.

Michael's maiden Irish Times effort is reproduced below:

Madam, - Susan Philips asserts that the authors of Bunreacht na hÉireann did not have same-sex couples in mind when penning the phrase "to guard with special care the institution of marriage". This may in fact be true, but is entirely beside the point.
The Constitution is a living document and must therefore adapt to reflect the changes experienced in Irish society over the past 70 years.
It would be wrong to hold sacred the ill-informed and clumsy phrasing of de Valera et al and to allow it to have a negative bearing on the human rights of today's citizens.
If this week's revelations have taught us nothing else, it is that the Irish political giants of yesteryear were far from infallible.- Yours, etc,
MICHAEL KELLY

Not all travellers are equal

How ironic does the concern for travellers delayed by fog, which currently dominates the news, sound to the permanent traveller listening to the radio in a caravan while keeping an eye out for the garda car and the warning to "move on"?

Happy Christmas, me arse.

Battleground for the next election

PD leader Michael McDowell continues with his effort to frighten the electorate by branding the opposition as “the slump coalition”. However, the next election is likely be fought out on a somewhat different battleground than that chosen by McDowell and his coalition partners.

In reality, there will be little difference in the broad economic and taxation policies of either coalition team put before the electorate, or indeed, in practice after the election. Also, there appear to be few fears among the electorate that any mainstream party will adopt a “tax & spend” approach. The fact that a majority of the electorate seem to prefer Labour rather than the PDs in Government with Fianna Fail, suggests that there is little fear of an economic slump as an outcome of the election.

Where the election battle should be fought is on the ability of either side to get the public services to work effectively and efficiently, making them accountable for delivering value for the enormous sums of public money being spent annually.

In this regard, the contest will be between the proven inability of the current coalition to achieve this objective against the unproven ability of the rainbow coalition to deliver the necessary leadership and change.

Will it be the devil you know or the devil you don’t know?

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Independent.

Moriarty musings

God be with the days when we thought we were joking when we talked about a "banana republic". Now the Moriarty Tribunal estimates that, in current day values, Charles Haughey took about €45m which the tribunal can identify. I suspect that there's more they couldn't find offshore. That sum would have kept the president of any small african or central american republic happy to do business, and you could be sure he'd have something salted away in Switzerland, just in case of a rainy day coup d'etat.

Moriarty has given Bertie Ahern a fool’s pardon for signing books of blank cheques for CJH on the leaders account, at a time when Bertie was treasurer of Fianna Fail. It explains how the party has been so loose about funds intended for party use sticking to the fingers of prominent members like Padraig Flynn and Ray Burke. Flynn still hasn't even been asked about the £50k donation he got from Tom Gilmartin, who is adamant it was a contribution to Fianna fail, not to Flynn personally.

Bertie was Charlie’s most trusted lieutenant so it came as no surprise that when he himself was stuck for few bob, someone organised a whip-round among selected political supporters in the early 90’s to bail him out. Given his willingness to follow in his mentor’s footsteps with regard to this type of funding, it must place a large question-mark over the amount actually disclosed, which was only a pittance compared to the amount accepted by CJH. Why would he stop there?

Before CJH’s demise, can’t you just imagine him laughing to himself as he watched his old nemesis Vincent Browne heading down the driveway with, by his own admission, tears in Vincent's eyes. Or regularly sharing an expensive bottle of chardonnay with that scourge of developers, Frank McDonald. Both men subsequently told of their meetings with CJH and spoke warmly about him. I can't help wondering how close he came to completing his ultimate Machiavellian goal, the elusive and exclusive Irish Times hat-trick - by enticing Fintan O’Toole into his web? Perhaps CJH made it but Fintan hasn't blabbed yet like his peers, or should that be blubbed?

On RTE’s Prime Time, Des Peelo, declared long-time personal friend of CJH, described himself as Mr Haughey’s "forensic accountant". So presumably he should know where all the financial bodies are buried or else he's useless. Which is it to be?

We were travellers too.

My elderly mother comes from the small Mayo town of Crossmolina. She recently told me a story, originally related to her by her sister, about a school-friend who worked as a nurse in post-war Newcastle, England. Sometime in the 1940’s the nurse was dating a young English doctor who asked her to marry him, but she turned him down. She confided to my aunt that she couldn’t marry him because she couldn’t bring him home to meet her parents. They had no toilet in the house and, although she loved the young doctor, she was too embarrassed to let him see her home place.

The nurse was from a reasonably well-off farming family, at least by Mayo standards. All the children had received a secondary education, even though it was neither compulsory or free. Only the eldest would inherit the farm, but all the rest were educated to enable them to pursue other trades and careers.

This story caused me to reflect on the stories of prejudice in post-war UK, with “No Irish” signs in the windows of boarding houses in the 1940’s & 50’s.

This nurse’s background was significantly more comfortable and enlightened than many poor small-holdings in the west of Ireland, where twenty acres of rushy land , part bog, part rock, didn’t provide much of a living for any family. Most farmhouses had no electricity until the rural electrification scheme, no running water and certainly nothing like an indoor toilet, never mind a bathroom. You’d have to wonder what exactly were the personal hygiene standards of the occupants of such households.

Many children in such households received no secondary education or training for some trade, but only the eldest would inherit the farm. In such poor surroundings, it would not be surprising if social skills were very limited indeed.

Once the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc sons reached maturity, they were no longer welcome to support at home and were expected to find employment elsewhere. How many thousand of these ill-prepared young men took the mail boat to England every year?

So, to the landladies of England, these coarse, red-haired young men, with poor personal hygiene, rough clothing, thick accents and little or no social skills were the equivalent of our travellers now. Would we want to let them into our own homes?

Some of these emigrants got on well, some didn’t. Some eventually came back to Ireland, many didn’t. Many of the emigrants were related to people who have prospered in later years in Ireland but who now have no recollection of just how poor and backward were their own forbears, going back only a couple of generations.

Some of these descendants now look down on travellers, just as the English landladies looked down of their grandfathers, granduncles, fathers etc..

We’ve come a long way in the past 50-odd years. We have achieved a national confidence and relative level of sophistication that is our due. But, when we write off the tinkers, we should never be allowed to forget that, for many of us, our relatively recent ancestors were travellers too.

Sunday Times Traveller

On Sunday 10th December, Brenda Power published an incendiary piece in the Sunday Times under the headline ”Travellers ludicrous and selfish lifestyle”. She more or less accused them of breeding like rats and you could take the inference from her article that some sort of involuntary contraception/sterilisation programme might be part of the solution. She basically wants them to f*** off, but to where she didn’t say.

That day, I sent her a long email, mainly a slightly modified version of my Dec 5th blog “Travellers - Moving on?”, prefaced by the following intro paragraph:

"Brenda, I thought your piece in today’s Sunday Times was provocative to the point of being bad tempered rabble-rousing, which surprised me because I‘ve always found you thoughtful and balanced on radio & tv. The question I’m left asking is this: who is Felim O’Rourke and what are his credentials on this sensitive topic and, frankly, what are yours to justify production of such an inflammatory piece? "

Subsequently I was contacted by the Sunday Times to know would I be willing to allow a heavily abridged version (space constraints on the letters page etc) be published. I agreed and the following letter is published today under the heading “Help Them First”.

Power attacks the “ludicrous and selfish lifestyle” of travellers, despite the fact that much traveller nomadism is now involuntary. They are moved on at 24 hours notice by the gardai, evicted (under Section 10 of the 1992 Housing Act or Section 24 of the 2002 “trespass act”) despite the fact that there is often nowhere for them to go. Such evictions must also severely disrupt education, access to services such as health and social welfare, or employment.

We, the settled community, have clearly failed in our obligations to provide appropriate accommodation, identified by the 1995 Task Force on The Travelling Community. Yet Power demands that travellers meet their obligations to a society that treats them as pariahs. Surely natural justice places the greater onus on the strong to deliver on their obligations first, before making demands on the weak? Only then can we justly adopt anything like a zero tolerance approach.

I, too, would like to see an end to nomadism and a concerted effort to normalise the life outcomes for travellers, but blaming the patient for being ill isn’t going to achieve much.

Xmas Cracker Puzzle for grown-ups

Here’s today’s problem:

You are the Building Manager of a 100-storey office block. The block is occupied by about 120 different companies of various sizes who, between them, have 12,000 employees in your building. All these companies officially start their working day at either 9.00 or 9.30am and finish at 5.30 or 6.00pm respectively.

On top of the building there is a viewing platform, open to the general public, which is very popular because of the panoramic views of the city it provides. The 100th floor is occupied by a restaurant and a couple of cafes and bars which are very popular with both locals and visitors alike.

Somewhat bizarrely, floors 36 to 39 are occupied by the Anlar School, the most exclusive in the city, whose remote sports campus is state of the art. The school has 800 pupils.

Your building is serviced by 40 lifts, each of which has a capacity of 20 people. When full, each lift makes an average of 10 stops, each of 30 seconds duration which contribute to an average “round-trip” time of 7 minutes. In other words, the maximum lift capacity is 800 people every 7 minutes or 6,860 per hour.

Every working day begins and ends with large numbers of workers milling around the various banks of lifts. Younger employees on the first 6-7 floors tend to use the stairs in the morning rather than endure the delay of getting a lift. Departing in the evening, some people from as high as 10-12 will use the stairs, descending being less physically arduous than ascending.

In addition, the Anlar School day starts at 9.00am and many parents, particularly of younger students, insist on accompanying their progeny in the lifts and delivering them personally to the school door. School day ends at 4.00pm, resulting in a relatively minor hold-up of lifts at that time.

Employers are becoming increasingly anxious about the stress faced by their employees in arriving for and departing from work. Some workers have taken to coming in early or leaving late to avoid the crush, but the majority are still working their normal day.
As Building Manager, you are doubly concerned by the increasing incidence of “lift-rage”, arguments and the odd scuffle have become an almost daily occurrence as someone tries to skip the queue. It will only be a matter of time before someone is seriously hurt and the police become involved.

This issue has been top of the agenda at recent tenant meetings and your proposed options/solutions are scheduled for delivery to the next meeting.

In the evening and at weekends, the lobby is a haven of peace and tranquillity, with only visitors to the viewing platform and 100th floor restaurant, cafes and bars using the building.

In considering your solutions, there are a number of constraints which may limit your options:
(1) Because of surrounding buildings and public walkways, it will not be possible to add additional lift capacity to the external frame of the building.
(2) Your architect advises that installation of additional lift capacity internally will cause huge disruption over an extended period to existing users of the building and is likely to be prohibitively expensive, in terms of actual construction costs and payment of compensation to existing tenants, both for disruption of their business and the need to buy back a portion of their leasehold interest.
(3) It will also involve taking some of the existing lift capacity out of service, temporarily compounding the problem while that particular solution is pursued.

Proposed solutions to mollox@ireland.com - if you crack this one you’ll possibly have gone some way towards solving Dublin’s traffic problem.

Politics and Gun & Drug Crime

When Nora Owen was Minister for Justice, "The Bull" O'Donoghue attacked her if a sweet shop was burgled, though he wasn’t so hot himself in the same role, his “Zero Tolerance” waffle proved to be a bad joke.

“The Bull” must sometimes feel sorry he’s not sitting across the floor of the Dail from the present justice minister, Michael McDowell, he’d have a field day with a man who's great at the media sound-bites but not so good at solving the gun and drug problems.

More BUPA

Responding to my email on Pat Kenny's radio programme today, BUPA MD Martin O’Rourke claimed that the average age of BUPA subscribers is 38 v. 44 for VHI, which doesn’t sound like a major gap. However, when you set this out in an age band table, you can see very quickly what it might actually mean in terms of premium income v. potential claims.

I don’t know the actual age profiles, for either company, but today’s Irish Times states that over one-thirds of VHI subscribers are over 50. In the table below I’ve assumed that 36% of VHI subscribers are 50+.

The following table is illustrative only - but it clearly shows a dramatically different risk profile even with an average age gap of only 6 years.

Age Bands
VHI Base
20-30 (ave 25) 22%
30-40 (ave 35) 21%
40-50 (ave 45) 21%
50-60 (ave 55) 20%
60-70 (ave 65) 11%
70+ (ave 75) 5%

BUPA Base
20-30 (ave 25) 31%
30-40 (ave 35) 27%
40-50 (ave 45) 26%
50-60 (ave 55) 12%
60-70 (ave 65) 3%
70+ (ave 75) 1%

Average Subscriber Age from tables above
VHI - 44.2
BUPA - 38.2

BUPA Ireland Financial Performance

Mr O’Rourke also implied that the company was unprofitable until very recently. BUPA’s website shows reported operating profits of

Year BUPA Operating Profit
2004 €24.3m
2005 €19.7m

In a submission to The Health Insurance Authority dated 26th March 2004, VHI quote underwriting profit figures for BUPA as

Year BUPA Underwriting Profit
2000 €7.5m
2001 €13.8m
2002 €15.3m

I rarely agree with Bertie Ahern, but I think BUPA have taken us for mugs with their “beal bocht ”. BUPA need to be pressed very hard to disclose actual numbers!

Breaking News - Solheim Cup for Ireland

RTE News must be rooting for the present government, because they made a big news item today of the announcement by the Minister for Sport, John "the Bull" O’Donoghue, that the Solheim Cup is to be played in Ireland in 2011.

We were told that this is the ladies golf equivalent of the Ryder Cup, but it’s to be played at a course that hasn’t yet been built - the Killeen Castle course in Co Meath, which has been designed by Jack Nicklaus.

The fact that it’s to be played on a course that isn’t even open yet should be a bit of a giveaway that this is a non-news story.

In addition, ladies professional golf must be one of the least well supported professional games in existence, so comparisons with the Ryder Cup are complete nonsense. If it achieves even 1% of the television viewership figures enjoyed by the Ryder Cup it will qualify as a broadcasting miracle.

Bye Bye BUPA

BUPA has announced that it is leaving the Irish market and, with immediate effect, will write no new business or renew any existing business as current 1-year contracts expire. The company claims that the exit costs will amount to €20m (Stg£13m).

BUPA has operated in Ireland for 10 years, since 1997, and claims to have 475,000 customers. They claim the Risk Equalisation will cost €161m over the next 3 years, compared with projected profits of €64m under the current system of operation.

That’s approx. €21m per annum profit, which is generated through the surplus of premium income over costs, principally staff, marketing and medical claims. This is a reflection of their relatively young customer base whose age profile would automatically mean a lower incidence of medical and hospital claims.

While BUPA is willing to recruit older customers, and has undoubtedly recruited a modest number of them, the reality is that
(a) BUPA's marketing effort has been focused on recruiting company schemes in well paid employments, where typically the average age of employees is probably as low as 30 and
(b) older people are far less likely to move from an insurer they’ve been with all their working lives in case the newcomer proves unreliable - as has turned out to be the case with BUPA.

If BUPA is currently making profits of c. €20m per annum, then presumably it has long ago recouped its set-up costs and has accumulated a healthy surplus over the past 5-6 years. These surplus funds should be invested for future claims, as inevitably an ageing membership base will make increasing claims while, in theory, the premium levels will remain relatively stable in real terms.

By cutting and running now, BUPA is able to pocket the accumulated surplus which should considerably exceed the winding-up costs estimated at €20m.

Meanwhile, VHI & Vivas are obliged to take on these abandoned BUPA subscribers without penalty, but without the cushion of the profit the subscriptions of these customers have generated in their earlier years of cover.

We should be grateful that BUPA has been forced to show their hand now, rather than in 10 years time when they really would have milked the market before folding their corporate tent and dumping their unfortunate members on VHI, with all the increased cost implications for VHI members at that time.

Footnote: Pat Kenny interviewed Martin O'Rourke, MD of BUPA, on 15th Dec and read this email to him in its entirety. Some bits denied e.g. share of corporate market and average age of BUPA subscriber 38 v. VHI 46. Actuarially, that could be quite a significant gap in terms of numbers of claims etc..
Also published as a letter in the Irish Times, the Irish Independent & the Irish Examiner.

In praise of the frying pan

Heston Blumenthal is the wunderkind of British cooking - his Fat Duck restaurant in Bray (England) has 3 Michelin Stars so he's a seriously good chef. However, he’s particularly famous for the application of scientific methods and chemical analysis in the creation of his dishes. Snail Porridge is, perhaps, his best known signature dish.

He’s now got a weekly TV show on BBC and tonight he was cooking up the perfect Spaghetti Bolognese, a standard, quick, one-pot (ok, 2) meal for many families.

Except Heston’s version requires the meat to be cooked for 8 hours. That leaves you plenty of time to prepare and cook a couple of other elements which are added in during the cooking process. All in all, a long and fairly involved process. What he seems to have missed is that Spaghetti Bolognese is popular for 2 main reasons - (i) it’s simple to make and (ii) it’s relatively quick. His version is neither.

I’ve only seen a few bits of the show over recent weeks but I suspect that there’s little to be learned that would be of use to the home cook/entertainer.

A couple of weeks back he was making some sort of dessert for which he used liquid nitrogen to keep the temperature very cold in a food mixer while combining ingredients. He then acknowledged that this wouldn’t be practical at home. “Thank God”, I thought, until his alternative solution for home use turned out to be “dry-ice” instead. I’ll just pop out to Tesco for some!