Monday, November 29, 2010

Who said that irony was dead?

Yesterday evening (Sunday), while following news reports from Brussels on the emerging detail of the IMF/EU deal for Ireland, we suffered a power-cut. Clearly no time was being wasted in implementing the austerity measures.

When power was restored about an hour later, during the Taoiseach’s televised news conference, the on-screen programme guide indicated that we were watching “The All-Ireland Talent Show”.

You couldn’t make it up!

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Politicians step up to the plate, media step back!

Hubristic incompetence has been the hallmark of the Governments, bankers, regulators and developers who have brought us to our present dilemma.

Now, when a light at the end of the tunnel is urgently needed, the fatalistic populism in our media gives rise to a real danger of creating the environment where “the man who thinks he can’t succeed is usually right”.

Ireland, through its people, is capable of getting through the current crisis, despite the hard choices, at national and household levels, which must be endured in the coming years.

A universally negative attitude will only delay the economic recovery and add to our general depression. Without resorting to unrealistically optimistic panaceas, we need to inject some positivity into the national discourse, put our heads down and get on with saving ourselves. We can do it and no-one else will do it for us.

We need the political system to step up to the plate and, perhaps, the media to step back from it.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

A warm welcome to our friends from the IMF & EU

Despite the recurrent theme of “a loss of sovereignty” from opposition politicians and media commentators, I can’t say that I’m greatly perturbed to have the IMF/EU as guests of the nation.

They might just ensure that the bullets that need biting are actually bitten and that our hoped-for economic recovery isn’t compromised by the incompetence and gombeenism of our elected representatives, particularly those currently in Government.

So, in addition to scrutinising our banks, I hope that the visiting IMF/EU team prioritises an impartial bench-marking exercise to compare the public service size, pay levels and pension entitlements with other EU countries.

Our elected politicians should not be exempted from this exercise.


A major cull of the numbers in the Dáil (166) and Seanad (60) would represent no great loss to the nation. Listening to the candidates in the upcoming Donegal by-election would tend to confirm this view.

Footnote: Section in italics published as a letter in the Irish Times.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Time to buy Govt Bonds

Irish government bonds, recently trading at over 9% on the secondary market, are being sold at a significant discount to their original issue price.

The government should now instruct the state-owned National Pension Reserve Fund (NPRF) to buy these bonds at their current discounted levels.

There are a number of benefits to this approach:

(i) it will, in real terms, improve our National Debt:GDP ratio

(ii) it will send a signal to the markets that we have confidence in our ability to manage our way out of this crisis

and last but not least,

(iii) it will remove these headline-grabbing rates (for relatively small amounts of stock) from the domestic and international media with their confidence-sapping talking heads, headlines, opinion columns and editorials.

More Pop-enomics from the McWilliams & Lucey double act

Last Fridays’ “Today with Pat Kenny” show on RTE radio was broadcast from Kilkenny where accomplished self-promoter David McWilliams was hosting "Kilkenomics", a 3-day mix of economics and comedy, presumably for his own financial/publicity gain.
Given the participants, it should have been branded “Pop-enomics”.

Both McWilliams and his attendant acolyte Brian Lucey are routinely treated as oracles, rather than orifices, by Pat Kenny and the media in general. Friday’s broadcast was no exception.

It’s the new truth – economists/academics have become the new terrorists – they only have top be right once. (Though I’ve no evidence that Lucey even qualifies under that banner).

The next time Kenny is in their exalted company, I suggest he might quiz them on the following pronouncements:

DAVID McWILLIAMS
On September 28th 2008 David McWilliams published this opinion piece in the Sunday Business Post.

http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=DAVID+McWilliams-qqqs=commentandanalysis-qqqid=36245-qqqx=1.asp

In it McWilliams advises the Govt “The only option is to guarantee 100 per cent of all depositors/creditors in the Irish banking system. This guarantee does not extend to shareholders who will have to live with the losses they have suffered. However, it applies to everyone else.”

That seems unequivocal and includes the subordinated bond-holders of ALL institutions, don’t you think??

McWilliams also asserts that this guarantee will cost the country nothing as it will never be called in! (We now know better!)

Doubtless this is the same advice McWilliams gave Finance Minister Lenihan at their midnight meeting, following which the Govt announced just such a blanket banking guarantee.

We don’t hear McWilliams claiming the credit for this particular piece of foresight, do we?

BRIAN LUCEY

In the Irish Times of June 30th 2009 Harry McGee has a report on Prof. Brian Lucey’s December 2005 prediction of ongoing growth in the housing market and the potential for subprime lending by Irish mortgage lenders.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0630/1224249782454.html

In an analysis prepared for mortgage company Homeloan Management Limited in December 2005, Prof Lucey dismissed the notion of an unsustainable property bubble and forecast the Irish housing market would continue to grow at a “modest but still significant pace”.

Lucey also identified more scope for increased mortgage lending by financial institutions by means of subprime mortgages, 100 per cent mortgages and equity-release loans.

Could Lucey be accused of rank hypocrisy now in his categorisation of bank mortgage lending as reckless, when they were merely agreeing with his own assessment? As it turned out, both were grievously wrong but only the banks are in the dock.

KARL DEETER


Karl Deeter didn’t feature on last Friday's radio programme, at least the bit of it I heard, but he was one of the signatories to a proposal calling for mortgage debt forgiveness published in Wednesday’s Irish Times.
The opinion piece in question carried no health warning as to the possible conflicts of interests of the signatories, the rest of which were a selection of academics.

However, Deeter is a mortgage broker and presumably is currently feeling the pinch in an almost dead housing market, where banks have seriously restricted their lending criteria and significantly reduced the commissions they will pay to mortgage brokers.
In addition, in a recent media appearance Karl Deeter stated that he himself is in a negative equity situation.

Could Deeter be more compromised? He's perfectly entitled to publish his views but we should be made aware of any vested interest he's representing. But did the Irish Times query the bona fides of this latest batch of harbingers of doom which, incidentally, included that ubiquitous media whore Brian Lucey. Of course they didn’t!

The above merely serves to illustrate the difference between a commentator and a policy maker.
Commentators can change their position on a regular basis and are almost never challenged by their fellow-travellers in the media about such u-turns.

Politicians, on the other hand, have to make actual decisions and are crucified by the media when they are sometimes forced to make u-turns.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Does this Government have any moral authority to govern?

The recent red paint incident involving Health Minister Mary Harney highlights a key issue: the willingness of this minister to turn up to claim the credit at the launch of any new health service initiative while persistently refusing to accept any political responsibility for failures in the health service.

Minister Harney is far from unique among her cabinet colleagues in this regard.

Now the High Court has found that the Government is in breach of its constitutional duty with regard to the Donegal by-election and the only defence offered by the Government is that the courts have no jurisdiction in this blatant abuse of political power.

Does this administration have any remaining moral authority to govern us?

Monday, November 01, 2010

Mary Harney painted red!

Isn’t it interesting that Health Minister Mary Harney can regularly turn up to claim the credit at the opening of a new health facility, while consistently denying responsibility in the Dáil for anything that goes wrong with the health service?

Attendance of this type of PR event, supposedly “state business”, is one of the justifications offered for the provision of the chauffeur driven state limousine to each minister. (The current batch of ministers would go to the opening of an envelope and think nothing of the cost of use of state cars, jets or helicopters to get them there and back!)

However, following the red paint incident today, they’ll be able to claim that personal security is the key consideration in deciding to keep their cars.

Personally, I’d give each minister a supply of paint remover and a book of dry-cleaning vouchers and tell them to provide their own transport in future.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Sinn Fein's by-election court case is rank hypocrisy

Sinn Fein is currently in the High Court trying to force the Government to move the writ for the Donegal South-West by-election, which they would be hoping to win with their putative candidate Senator Pearse Doherty.

The vacancy occurs following the election of sitting FF TD Pat “the Cope” Gallagher to the European Parliament in June 2009.

The Government is almost certain to lose the by-election and consequently has been stalling the contest for as long as possible.

While I fully agree that the by-election is way overdue (and is only one of three such outstanding contests), I think it’s rank hypocrisy for Sinn Fein to claim that the absence of one TD in a multi-seat constituency constitutes a democratic deficit, when their own elected MPs in Northern Ireland, each the sole representative in a single-seat constituency, refuse to take their seats at Westminster.

Footnote: A variant published as a letter in the Irish Times

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Joe Duffy's Irony By-Pass operation a success

RTE’s Joe Duffy really took the biscuit last week when his Liveline programme was devoted to litter fines and, in a small number of cases, imprisonment for non-payment of those fines.

Joe was outraged about (a) the cost of the €150 on-the-spot fine and (b) the fact that a person could be sent to prison for such a trivial offence as non-payment of that fine.

It has obviously escaped his attention that there is a large, ongoing media campaign warning people that non-payment of the arbitrary TV licence fee of €160, levied annually on almost every household in the country, will result in large fines and possible imprisonment.

Listening to RTE’s “stars”, earning hundreds of thousands of euros, share with the nation their heartfelt anguish for the plight of the ordinary citizen, I often wonder if an irony by-pass is mandatory in RTE.

Joe Duffy certainly appears to have had one.

Footnote: A variant published as a letter in the Irish Independent

Monday, September 27, 2010

Fine Gael blocks Education Minister's trip to USA

Enda Kenny should relent and give his "alma mater" to Mary Coughlan’s proposed trip to the USA.

Ireland needs her to showcase our educational standards.

Footnote: Aired on Pat Kenny's Today programme (RTE)

Friday, August 20, 2010

Leaving Cert - Girls v. Boys

Once again, girls outperform boys in the Leaving Certificate points race, thus giving them first choice of the most desired places in our third level institutions.

Despite this educational disadvantage, men continue, in general, to outperform women, in later life, in business and the professions.

Does this suggest that we are failing to optimise our very substantial investment in third level education, by over-investing in, ultimately, under-achieving females?

Re-balancing the allocation of third level places, by whatever means, would probably deliver significant long-term economic benefits to the country.

Indeed, creating a bias in favour of males students would be the logical, if politically unacceptable, solution.

Footnote:
Published as a letter in the Irish Times

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Lucinda Creighton - batting for Paddy McKillen?

Was Lucinda Creighton attacking Enda Kenny with her comments at the MacGill Summer School re corporate contributions, or was she subtly supporting Paddy McKillen's challenge to NAMA?

Paddy McKillen will certainly welcome what is being reported as the latest Fine Gael leadership attack by Lucinda Creighton, as it strongly supports his High Court challenge to NAMA on the grounds that any involvement with that body will be prejudicial to his business.

The contention is that being “in NAMA” inevitably brings with it a significant degree of ignorant prejudice, fuelled by much ill-informed and populist political and media commentary.

Mr McKillen’s legal team might usefully consider calling Ms Creighton as a witness.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Enda Kenny nicknamed Stalin: Man of Steel

Today is the day. Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting (TDs, Senators & MEPs - 70 in total)kicks off at 11.30 with a one-item agenda: a vote of confidence in the leadership of Enda Kenny.

If Kenny wins today, even by a small margin, it will represent a remarkable feat of courage, endurance and real balls. What you want in a leader when the going gets tough.

Such a win will lift FG/Kenny in the polls because Kenny will have displayed fighting qualities the public, never mind the plotters, didn’t believe he possessed.

It will also help in silencing some of his critics in the media punditeriat who treat him with thinly veiled contempt face to face, and with unconcealed contempt when he’s not in studio.

And isn’t it interesting that even in an online politics.ie members poll (2147 votes), the messiah Bruton is only narrowly ahead of Kenny but still couldn’t get 40% of the votes, despite the long-term weakness of Kenny.

I’m personally very unconvinced by Bruton as a charismatic leader who will connect with the public when exposed on a wider range of topics.
And I’m not alone in questioning his economic abilities. His original banking plan was an unworkable recipe for disaster and I'm not alone in that assessment. Even Karl Whelan and Brian Lucey agree. Luckily, the country didn't have Bruton at the wheel at that critical time.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Richard Bruton pledges disloyalty to Fine Gael if Kenny wins

Tomorrow’s Fine Gael leadership meeting should begin with a public, individual commitment by all participants that all voters will accept the outcome and commit to putting their talents at the disposal of the party in the aftermath of the vote, whoever emerges as the leader.

To refuse to make this public commitment would amount to disloyalty to the party, not just to the party leader. In that circumstance, those refusing should resign the FG whip and sit as independents.

This is necessary because challenger Richard Bruton has publicly declared that he will refuse to serve Fine Gael in any front bench position if incumbent Enda Kenny wins the leadership contest tomorrow.

Bruton has said in a number of interviews that he will serve his constituents but will refuse to put his talents at the disposal of his party, despite a democratic leadership process having been undertaken.

This is clearly disloyalty to the party, not just to the party leader. If Bruton persists with this stance, he should resign the FG whip and sit as an independent.

Incidentally, Bruton said, on Vincent Browne’s programme the other night, that he would not serve in a Kenny-led front-bench, but he got all coy when VB asked would he refuse a ministerial position if offered one by Kenny after the next election.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Des O'Malley - "would start a row in an empty house"

Watching RTE’s “The PDs – From Boom To Bust” last night, I laughed when Charlie McCreevy said of Des O’Malley that, while he could be great craic, “he would start a row in an empty house”.

I was reminded of a story I heard a couple of years ago about an incident back in the 1970s when O’Malley was Minister for Justice. Hopefully it’s not an urban myth.

At the time Des was in the habit of paying a regular visit to his mother, who lived in the Sandycove/Dun Laoghaire area. After the visit he would drop into Fitzgerald’s pub in Sandycove for a drink, accompanied by two Special Branch bodyguards. Des would take a stool at the bar and the two bodyguards would sit at a table near the door.

Des would strike up a conversation with the locals at the bar and, in no time at all, would have an argument going. Sometimes he’d be running several different arguments simultaneously with a number of drinkers.

The night of O’Malley’s visit would coincide with the pub owner’s (Charlie Fitzgerald) night off and the young barman in charge didn’t know who O’Malley was.

After several weeks of this routine the young barman finally lost patience: “Look, every time you come in here you start a row. You’re upsetting my regulars. Finish your drink and get out, you’re barred!”

Of course, this started a new row with the barman as O’Malley strongly asserted his rights. The barman came around the counter, took Des by the scruff of the neck and frog-marched him to the door, past the two bodyguards who made no move to intervene, and out the door onto the street.

As the barman came back in, he passed the Special Branch men on their way out to rejoin their master. “Goodnight now” was all they said.

The following day Charlie Fitz was horrified (terrified) when one of his regulars, who had recognised O’Malley, told him what had happened, fearing perhaps that he’d be targeted by the gardai in reprisal. Thankfully, there were no repercussions.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Richard Bruton - a political jack-in-the-box

On Thursday night, when the results of the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll were known, Richard Bruton appeared on RTE’s Prime Time and TV3’s “Vincent Browne at the Palladium”.

On both programmes, he was invited to endorse Kenny's leadership and singularly failed to do so. Instead, he behaved like some shy teenager being teased about fancying some young one.

This wasn’t just a display of disloyalty, it was gross political stupidity.

Regardless of his feelings about Enda Kenny or his own desire to lead FG, he has to endorse the current leader in public, when specifically asked about it by the media.

Instead, what he has now done is to provide ammunition for the media and opposing political interests, including Labour, to focus on FGs problems and deflect attention away from

(a) the banking stew in which, rightly at last, Biffo finds himself and

(b) the populist vapidity of Labour's utterings on how to resolve the public finance deficit

Those TV performances were akin to Bruton shooting himself, and his party, in the foot.

In the loner term, Richard Bruton’s performance regarding the banking crisis has been pathetic. His original proposal, repeatedly revised in light of ongoing criticism, was complete nonsense. Even with the revisions, his proposals have been rubbished by two of his former party leaders, and no recognised expert has endorsed them.

In the past year, Bruton has transformed himself from serious commentator into a political jack-in-the-box joke, jumping up and down with every market movement, desperately trying to score populist political points, instead of maintaining his gravitas.

The last thing FG needs is a shrill new leader named Richard Bruton (or that tiresome whinger Lucinda Creighton).

What they do need is some cop on, more political bottle and a display of loyalty to their current leader. Otherwise, they will let both FF and Labour off the hook and lose even more market share.

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Shane Ross - the dog that doesn't bark - at O'Reilly

Independent News & Media (IN&M) AGM was held yesterday and I knew there would be fireworks as the bold Senator Shane Ross castigated the board over the massive loss of shareholders investment in the past 3 years. The shares have fallen from a peak of €3.87 in June 2007 to a dismal €0.115 today – that’s a drop of 97%!

In terms of shareholder losses, IN&M has managed to outdo AIB & BOI – now that took some doing. So after the roasting Shane Ross gave the top table at AIB & BOI shareholder meetings, I knew the IN&M board was in for a torrid time.

Imagine my surprise when I watched the tv news last night and read the papers this morning. Not a word of ructions at the IN&M AGM – I wonder was Senator Ross even at the meeting?

Actually, this will come as no surprise to anyone who has watched Ross’s populist antics over the years. He’s fearless attacking Eircom, the banks, the toll on the M50 etc., but he’s never published or uttered a critical word about any of his employer’s business ventures, many of which have failed to sparkle. IN&M is only the latest dud – Waterford Wedgewood was a complete disaster, not least for the workers who lost not only their jobs but their pension entitlements too. Fitzwilton was a long-standing walking wounded until someone finally put it out of its public listing misery. Various ventures into oil and mining have also left investors nursing significant losses.

I look forward to seeing what’s in the Sunday Indo (Ross is the “business editor” – now that’s a laugh) about the performance of IN&M. Doubtless it will be glowing praise and optimism for the efforts of the board, now led by O’Reilly junior.

Time to reprise, again, my favourite Shane Ross joke:
Trinity College has outdone Ancient Rome because it's only a myth that Caligula made his horse a Roman Consul but it's a fact that Trinity College has made a senator out of a complete horse's arse.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Israel a pariah state, comparable with apartheid-era South Africa

It has always been legitimate for sea-farers to attempt to repel pirates with every means at their disposal. Responsibility for the Gaza convoy deaths rests entirely with the Israeli pirates, not with those attempting to repel the heavily armed boarders.

It is laughable for the Israelis to claim a justification of self-defence when they were the armed aggressors attacking an unarmed ship. If I break into your house armed with a gun and shoot you dead because you try to resist, a plea of “self-defence” just might get me a reduction from murder to manslaughter, but I’m certainly going to jail.

I look forward to seeing those involved in the authorisation, planning and execution of this criminal act brought before the international court on charges of piracy and murder. (I won’t be holding my breath)

In the meantime, we ordinary citizens can take our lead from the actions of the Dunnes Stores workers who, in 1984, showed us the appropriate response to a repressive regime which consistently shows two fingers to the international community with regard to human rights.

In terms of pariah status, Israel is now on a par with apartheid-era South Africa. The UN should dust down the old sanctions, no need to re-invent the wheel.

Friday, May 14, 2010

Johnny Foreigner on Little Englander

What would a foreigner make of UK society if he/she had to make a judgement on it, as viewed through the prism of UK media?

Quite apart from all the recent routine election-related vitriol, there’s the weekly Westminster Punch & Judy show that is known as PMQs. This, supposedly, represents the pinnacle of political discourse in the UK parliament.

The BBC’s (the public service broadcaster!) “mock or shaft” Dragon’s Den and the hyper-abrasive personnel skills of Alan Sugar on The Apprentice might well be taken to represent the recommended approach to achieving business/economic success in the UK.

The foreign viewer would also have the daily diet of dysfunctional families and communities, as represented by top-ratings programmes such as Emmerdale, Coronation Street and Eastenders.

One wonders what the ordinary UK resident makes of it all, fed on this daily tv diet of abrasion and confrontation from all levels of society? And then there are the “red tops”, the biggest selling “newspapers” in UK, which routinely go for “shock & awe” OTT banner headlines.

Fed on such a sustained and noxious diet, is it any wonder that many UK citizens appear to believe it is acceptable to behave aggressively and/or to hold xenophobic views? This might also explain the UK attitude to the EU – they can’t be a member of any club unless they actually run it!

Hopefully, the recent formation of a coalition government may remove some of the perceived stigma associated with the idea of having to moderate ones language and behaviour and live with compromise.

The reality is that we all do it in our daily lives - in our family, our workplace, our social circle etc..

Saturday, May 08, 2010

Sauce for our political geese

Recent problems regarding expenses and pensions for our politicians arise primarily for a common reason: their propensity to exclude themselves from regulations they enact for application to the rest of us.

The solution therefore is for the political classes to formally adopt the following principle: what’s good enough for us is good enough for them.

In that situation you wouldn’t, for example, have
(a) politicians in receipt of ministerial pensions while still in receipt of TD’s salaries, well in advance of normal retirement age.
(b) such pension entitlements calculated on a greatly foreshortened service scale.
(c) permission to claim material expenses and allowances on an unvouched basis.
(d) the use of a state car and drivers for personal and/or party political use without incurring any benefit-in-kind tax liability.

From now on we should have no special exemptions for politicians. That might help regain public trust.