It's time to declutter the Olympics.

A letter in today’s Irish Times makes a plea for Beach Volleyball to be taken more seriously as an Olympic sport. (roll eyes)

I freely confess that I include it with “sports” such as Synchorised Swimming, Synchronised Diving, Gymnastic Streamer Twirling etc in the long list of sports which, I feel, have reduced the Olympics to little more than a 5-ring circus.

Would you believe that gold medals were awarded in 302 events at the Beijing Olympics? How many of these events could be dropped without most people noticing?

A new process is urgently required to trim this growing circus to more manageable proportions and determine which sports should be allowed. Thankfully, the selection criteria are already described in the Olympic motto: "Citius, Altius, Fortius" (faster, higher, stronger). Any sport where victory does not depend on one or more of these three attributes should be automatically ineligible for inclusion in the Olympics.

This would reduce the number of events to something far more manageable and, most importantly, more credible as real sports.

Rugby ELVs & Lansdowne 10-year Tickets

What impact will Rugby Union’s Experimental Law Variations (ELVs) have on the success, or otherwise, on Ireland’s international team?
Thirteen changes in the existing rules will be effective for the 2009 6-Nations competition. Several of these ELVs result in the awarding of a free kick, rather than a penalty.
In the past several years, Ireland has been particularly dependent on the penalty-kicking ability of Ronan O’Gara to keep the scoreboard ticking over, but also to advance our forwards up the touchline. If, as now proposed, many of the infringements will only result in a free-kick, this source of points or territorial advance will be severely curtailed.
This comes at a time when our backline seems to have lost it’s cutting edge, it’s ability to breakthrough the opposition defence. Denis Hickey and David Humphries have retired, Ronan O’Gara couldn’t break out of a paper bag, Brian O’Driscoll has turned into a very good back-row forward and Gordon Darcy has completely lost his form for the past couple of years.
How will Ireland fare in this new rules environment? Where will the points come from?
Will the new Lansdowne Road become the venue for routine away victories for the Italians?
Will those who paid €15,000 for 10-year tickets wonder how they could have been so dazzled by the sun shining out of the backside of the Celtic Tiger?

And speaking of those expensive 10-year tickets, here’s the awful scenario that awaits the holders of those €15,000 duds:
Either Ireland are crap, routinely vying for the wooden spoon, and play to sub-capacity crowds in Lansdowne Road, where getting a ticket is no longer a problem, thus rendering the expense of the 10-year jobs a needless extravagance OR
Ireland play well, attracting more demand than the 50,000-seater Lansdowne can accommodate and the bigger rugby fixtures are routinely transferred to Croke park, to avail of the 83,000 capacity there.
I have no doubt that the GAA will be quite amenable to the extra revenue, having gotten over the moral issue of garrison games on sacred turf some time ago.
Either way I sleep soundly in my bed, thankful that I missed the opportunity to fork out €15,000.

Willie O'Dea & the Temple of Gloom

Defence Minister Willie O’Dea demonstrated his usual facility for vulgar abuse in his recent attack on Enda Kenny, following the opposition leader’s critique of Brian Cowen’s performance as Taoiseach in his first 100 days.

We’ll have to await the return of the Dail to see what the Grumbleboor of Tullamore will pull out of the hat to silence his growing band of critics.
It will hardly be a dove, too symbolic of peace for a man who clearly prefers aggression, but let’s hope it’s not just that tired old white rabbit named Willie.

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times. I can't believe it!

Bush & Co in the Kremlin

In a letter published in yesterday’s Irish Times, Senator David Norris highlighted the irony of President Bush lecturing the Russians that “bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy”, with regard to that country's actions in Georgia.

It doesn’t require any great leap of the imagination to see Messrs Bushkin, Cheynedvedev and Rumsfeldski acting and talking tough from the Kremlin, ably represented at the UN by Ambassador Boltonov.

3rd Level Fees - who should pay?

Education Minister Batt O’Keeffe has, predictably, stirred up a middle-class hornet’s nest with his proposal to review the possibility of a re-introduction of 3rd level college fees.

Clearly, many people will have planned their finances on the basis of not paying 3rd level college fees and the re-introduction of such fees could be a heavy financial burden for an extra 3-4 years per student.

The paradox is that many of those who object to paying 3rd level fees are the very people who have chosen to send their children to fee-paying secondary schools, rather than free schools. It is argued that the current system has merely allowed some parents to subsidise 6 years of secondary education by avoiding 3rd level fees.

This includes the use of grind schools, the ubiquitous “institutes” which enjoy a roaring trade in seeking to maximise Leaving Cert CAO points. In turn, this drives up the number of points required for entry toUniversity courses, creating a further barrier to those from disadvantaged backgrounds – the very people who were supposed to be the main beneficiaries of free 3rd level education.

In Dun Laoghaire, 3 “free” schools have closed since the introduction of free 2nd level education – CBS Eblana Avenue, Dominican Convent and, most recently, Presentation College Glasthule. That’s several hundred “free-school” places lost as local parents have chosen to send their children to alternative schools – mostly fee-paying.

So here’s my proposed solution: Pupils who attend free second-level schools will receive free 3rd level education as heretofore. Those who attend fee-paying schools and/or grind schools will, subject to a means test, be liable for 3rd level fees. Such fees might be capped at the same level as the fees paid in the student’s final year at 2nd level, depending on the parents annual income.

The passing of Ronnie Drew

Today’s media are filled with glowing tributes to Ronnie Drew whose cancer finally caught up on him. Ronnie was 73, but who would have believed he’d survive that long given the alcohol-fuelled and cigarette-fumed lifestyle “enjoyed” by The Dubliners for decades.

Ronnie was a genuine legend in his own lifetime, beloved by several generations of all classes. This despite being an often grumpy git who didn’t suffer fools.

With Ronnie passes the Irish ballad scene, which has been in steady decline since the heyday of the Dubliners. Now it survives in tourist-trap pubs in Ireland and in the thousands of “Irish Bars” throughout the world. Come to think of it – would any of those “Irish Bars” exist today if it wasn’t for the ethos created by the Dubliners?

Let’s hope the many musical tributes we’ll be hearing in the coming week will be Ronnie and the The Dubliners performing, rather than that poxy “Ballad of Ronnie Drew” recently recorded as a tribute by an array of musical “stars”. It’s a cringe-making effort which should now be consigned to the jukebox known as dustbin.

I’m sure Ronnie agrees – “hey Ronnie, knock once if you think I’m wrong.” There, I told you.

The wife was collecting a neighbour from St Vincent’s Private Hospital last Tuesday. While she was waiting, a very sick-looking man was brought through in a wheelchair. When she got home she told me she thought it was Ronnie Drew and, if it was, she didn’t think he was long for this world. Sadly, it looks like she was right – for once.

R.I.P.

A pet is for life.

My sister and her partner suffered the demise their much loved Ella earlier this year, a dog they’d had for about 12 years. There was much upset, the loss of Ella was a bereavement in the family, a traumatic experience.

They quickly determined to get a new dog and a 12-week old springer spaniel pup has now arrived. However, assuming that the new arrival is held, in due course, in similar affection to Ella, the trauma of the death of a well-loved pet will inevitably be repeated in 12-15 years time.

This got me to thinking that, in order to avoid such upset, it would make sense to choose a pet which will outlive you.
The giant Galápagos tortoise is one possibility, though taking it for a walk in the evening might be a tedious affair. But they live to 150+ years, and they’re quite a manageable size for the first 30-odd years.

But you get the gist of my proposal, it’s up to each individual to identify a long-living pet s/he will enjoy. It should be entirely possible Google “animal longevity”, with a view to finding a suitable pet which should outlive you.

And here’s the twist – rather than facing the inevitable loss of a pet, instead you’ll find yourself worrying about who’ll look after him/her when you’re gone!

Russian invasion of Georgia - questions for Ireland

Russia’s invasion of Georgia poses some interesting questions for Ireland’s policy on energy security and neutrality .

The need to ensure European energy security, currently heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, is likely to mean that nuclear energy will become a much more attractive option than heretofore. Ireland cannot be immune from such considerations. Minister Ryan’s promised “debate” on nuclear energy may not prove to be the foregone conclusion he appears to think it is.

Ireland’s neutrality is copper-fastened by our commitment to only become involved in foreign missions which have been sanctioned by a resolution of the UN Security Council. Yet what is the basis for the moral authority of that body, as currently constituted?

China, France, Russia, UK & USA, the five permanent members of that Council, each holds a veto over any such resolution. China is in the dock over human rights in general and Tibet in particular. France has recently been indicted by the Rwandan government over its alleged complicity in the 1994 genocide in that country. Russia has demonstrated in Chechnya that it will be utterly ruthless in defending its own interests. Russia’s action in Georgia, to date, is only in the halfpenny place compared to Chechnya. UK & USA bypassed the UN for their 2003 invasion of Iraq, while the USA continues to defy international law through the ongoing operation of Guantanamo and its policy of extraordinary rendition.

Churchill’s famous dictum that “jaw jaw is better than war war” is still valid and it is undoubtedly worthwhile to have a forum such as the UN for “jaw jaw” among the major powers.

The moral authority of the Security Council must now be threadbare at best, it’s almost as if the lunatics have taken over the asylum Surely it’s time for Ireland to behave like a mature democracy and take its direction from our own moral compass?

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times.

Are you watering your lawn?

Two facts:

1. The Government has recently announced cutbacks in Departmental spending on advertising and PR, as part of a wider programme of cost-cutting measures.
2. This is one of the wettest summers on record, with typically 3-4 times the long-term average rain fall in June & July, with the forecast for August no better.

Yet we’re currently being treated to a series of radio ads warning people not to waste precious drinking water by watering their lawns.

It’s simply unbelievable that people would be watering lawns this summer, given the volume of rainfall the entire country has been drenched with. In fact, owners of lawns have been hard pressed to get a couple of dry days in which to cut their grass!

So what idiot decided to create and air these completely irrelevant ads at public expense? Is it simply another case of utter incompetence in the public service? Or is it some cynical civil servant showing two-fingers to the Government and, more pointedly, his/her own line minister?

Whichever it is, someone should be getting a boot up the backside.

PS: I've subsequently spotted some large billboard (48-sheet) posters promoting the same idiotic message.

Gordon Brown - rewrote "loyalty to leader" rules.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown & the Labour Party seem to be in a spot of bother, according to all the polls, and the political pundits in the UK seem to think that Foreign Secretary David Miliband has shown his hand as a putative successor.

Brown supporters in the Labour party have accused Miliband of disloyalty and now demand that he be demoted as punishment for this heinous crime.

This is laughable.

Almost from the day Labour won their third successive general election in May 2005, Brown and his acolytes plotted the overthrow of Tony Blair and used every available opportunity to undermine him and hasten his pre-announced but undated departure. Multiple plots and attempted political coups were evidenced before Blair finally went in June 2007.

So Brown himself rewrote the rules of the British Labour Party with regard to loyalty to the leader and perhaps he’s now about to reap the whirlwind.

Tony Blair must have mixed feelings about the current situation. No doubt he allows himself a wry smile as he watches Gordon discover that it’s not that easy to be PM, but Blair cannot be happy to see his party face a future, and quite possibly a long one, in opposition.

But I’d like to be a fly on the wall whenever Blair chats with Alistair Campbell about Gordon’s tribulations. The cup of human kindness might not exactly be overflowing, I suspect.

Brian Cowen - the Lisbon impasse!

Stephen Collins has shocked some Irish Times readers with his recent proposal that the Dail, rather than the electorate, should now ratify the Lisbon Treaty.

However, the likelihood of Brian Cowen taking the political risk involved seems even less than the likelihood of him actually getting a second referendum successfully past the post.

Finding our way out of the Lisbon impasse seems as far away as ever, particularly now that Mr Cowen has managed to further damage the cross-party political consensus in favour of the treaty.

Having been very late out of the traps, due to the distraction of Bertie Ahern’s extended lap of honour, followed by his own coronation and victory lap, Mr Cowen still felt it appropriate to give a very public slap in the face to Fine Gael, his largest political pro-Lisbon ally. That party’s natural resentment can be viewed in a new light, as analysis of the advertising spend on the campaign shows that Fianna Fail invested only a small fraction of the amount spent by Fine Gael.

Then the Taoiseach sought to exlcude the leaders of the two main pro-Lisbon opposition parties in the meetings with President Sarkozy, on his recent visit, thus relegating them to the same status as the unelected faction leaders on the NO side, who were each invited to make a three minute presentation at the French embassy. Only the public refusal of Messrs Kenny & Gilmore to accept this sidelining caused a last minute change of heart and averted a highly embarrassing diplomatic gaffe.

So when President Sarkozy came to call, he didn’t have to travel far to find the main reason for the failure of the referendum and the main obstacle to a successful re-run; it greeted him on the steps of Government Buildings.

Unless Brian Cowen demonstrates an ability to build rather than destroy political consensus, there’s no possibility of the Lisbon Treaty being ratified in Ireland.

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times but, sadly, they chose to edit out the Sarkozy bits (in italics) which I thought represented the most recent and relevant Lisbon concensus cock-up by Cowen.

Libertas political coup derails Lisbon Treaty

I think we’ve just witnessed a bloodless political coup, masterminded by the hitherto (politically) unknown Libertas organisation.

That coup successfully overthrew the aspiration of the democratically elected Government and both main opposition parties to pass the Lisbon Treaty. By doing so, it also set off a domino political crisis in 26 other democratic states which comprise the EU and many of which have already ratified the treaty through their parliaments.

A question which inevitably arises is whether Libertas is a genuinely Irish-born organisation or a front for some external party or government with an interest in derailing the EU project. Libertas was founded by businessman/oligarch Declan Ganley, but the political objectives and funding of that organisation are unknown at this point in time.

You have to ask who would be interested in scuppering the EU? Presumably parties intent on preventing the EU developing greater economic, political, diplomatic and, perhaps, military power on the world stage. The USA and Russia spring to mind.

Libertas founder Declan Ganley has strong connections in both countries. His company, Rivada Networks, provides telecommunications facilities to US-government agencies e.g. the national guard, police services, FEMA etc., while his early business career was built around the export of metals, particularly aluminium, from Russia.

It would have been easy to identify Ireland, the only country holding a referendum, as the weakest link in the Lisbon Treaty ratification chain. Is that what happened?

Another possible objective of the coup is the personal political ambition of Declan Ganley and the use of the Lisbon Treaty as a launch pad for his political career.

Ganley was the guest on Eamon Dunphy’s RTE programme yesterday where he revealed that, at the time Latvia declared independence from the USSR in August 1991, he was very friendly with members of the Latvian Popular Front, many of whom ended up in the first Latvian Government. His connections there arose from the fact that his company exported it’s Russian metals through Riga, the capital of Latvia.

Ganley expressed great admiration and enthusiasm for these Latvian patriots. When asked where these people were on the politcial spectrum, Ganley agreed that they were broadly conservative, with nationalists and some socialists in the mix. Much of Ganley's own rhetoric smacks of nationalism, patriotism, pride in irishness etc etc..

One suspects he's probably some brand of neo-liberal nationalist, but the fear is that Libertas might just stray into neo-fascism, given the political colour of some of its anti-Lisbon political bed-fellows. Not exactly a collection of dyed-in-the-wool democrats.

Mansergh defends 2003 Decentralisation "Plan"

Monday’s Irish Times “Head to Head” debate on the 2003 Decentralisation Plan , between Minister for State Martin Mansergh and AHCPS Dep.Gen.Sec. John Kelleher, provides some interesting insights into Government thinking in this area and its broader understanding of its own Spatial Strategy.

Defending the plan, Martin Mansergh paints an idyllic picture of civil servants decentralised to Tipperary town, informing us that they “are very happy to be within 15 minutes or less commuting distance from home”. The agency in question is the Immigration & Naturalisation Section of the Department of Justice. Minister Mansergh makes no reference to the commuting convenience, or otherwise, of the customers of this agency, whenever this might prove necessary. Customer convenience is clearly not a relevant consideration in Government thinking.
This lack of consideration for customers is confirmed by John Kelleher in his contribution on the topic, in which he illustrates a number of other examples of illogical relocations e.g. the Irish Prison Service to Longford, the Development Aid section of Foreign Affairs to Limerick, the Public Appointments Service to Youghal and the Equality Tribunal to Portarlington.

Minister Mansergh defends the lack of fit between the 2003 Decentralisation “Plan” and the 2002 National Spatial Strategy, explaining that “practically all the hubs and gateways already have civil service buildings, under previous decentralisation programmes.”
Yet a key objective of the 2002 National Spatial Strategy was to concentrate future development in a finite number of identified locations, the gateways and hubs, in order to achieve sufficient scale in those locations to support economic delivery of services and infrastructural investment.
Instead, the 2003 Decentralisation Plan proposes to scatter 10,300 civil servants to 53 locations, most of which are neither gateway nor hub, and Minister Mansergh is clearly happy to defend this “one for everyone in the audience” approach.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has identified reform of the public service and extraction of better value for money as a key political priority. The thinking demonstrated in Minister Mansergh’s contribution, allied to several additional drawbacks outlined by John Kelleher, wouldn’t inspire any great confidence in a happy outcome for either public servants or taxpayers.

Footnote: Published as a letter in The Irish Times.

Is Lisbon Treaty 98% of the EU Constitution?

Former French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing has claimed that the Lisbon Treaty is 98% identical to his failed EU Constitution.

“The EU Constitution has now been repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty.”

“The EU Constitution has not been repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty.”

Both the above sentences are more 98% identical, but their meanings are quite different.

Could that be what he means?

What's clear is that any major document could be modified by the inclusion or exclusion of key sentences, phrases or single words and its meaning can be substantially changed. So the "98%" claim can be essentially meaningless.

Sinn Féin & the Lisbon Treaty

What is the logic behind Sinn Fein’s opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, apart from that party’s normal ultra-nationalist anti-EU stance, which reflects its automatic denial of anything that may even appear to impinge on our sovereignty, as they choose to define it at any point in time?

Defence of our 12.5% Corporate Tax rate.
Didn’t Sinn Fein campaign for an increase in that rate as recently as the 2007 General Election? Are we now expected to be believe, 12 months later, that this Corporate Tax rate has become a core value for Sinn Fein? Who are they trying to fool? So the only question is this: are they just cynically scare-mongering or are they also trying to attract support and political donations from the business sector? Will Libertas leading lights feature on future lists of party donors?

Neutrality and Demilitarisation
The argument about the treaty requiring member countries to upgrade their armed forces would be better made by parties other than Sinn Fein. That party clearly had, in the past, a vested interest in keeping the security forces of this state in the weakest possible position. Doubtless there may well be some among their leadership/active membership who would wish to maintain that situation in the, hopefully unlikely, event of a return to “war”.
Sinn Fein’s concern for Irish neutrality and their desire to ensure that the Irish Army does not become involved in any EU adventures abroad is, in light of their own history, utterly lacking credibility. To be lectured thus by former terrorists is, frankly, FARCical.

Renegotiation of the Lisbon Treaty
Brian Cowen rightly made the point that this is far from the easy option so simplistically pushed by Sinn Fein and their fellow-travellers on the NO side.
As Cowen pointed out, if he goes back to Brussels with the list of problem areas being promoted by the NO campaigners, the other national leaders will be left scratching their heads while they say “but your tax position is protected by Lisbon, as is neutrality, abortion is unchanged, privatisation of public services remains a domestic policy decision etc etc etc”.
And let’s examine briefly the record of “ace negotiators” Sinn Fein: after 30+ years of mayhem and murder, for which that party must bear the greatest share of the blame.
What did they actually achieve?
(i) The territorial claim to Northern Ireland has been deleted from the Irish Constitution.
(ii) The constitutional position of NI as part of the United Kingdom is recognised by all parties, including the Irish Govt and Sinn Fein.
(iii) Ian Paisley (and now Peter Robinson, Baron Clontibret) becomes Prime Minister of Northern Ireland.
You couldn’t make it up! And these are the boyos who talk about renegotiating Lisbon? You wouldn’t send them out to buy a pint of milk.
Does anyone believe that the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Movement could have achieved LESS if left to pursue their peaceful approach for a decade? How prosperous would NI be now if they’d had 30 years of peace instead of Sinn Fein “negotiation”?

Beware the Paramilitary-Industrial Complex!

In 1961, retiring President Dwight Eisenhower warned the American public about the potential risk to democracy of the growing influence of the emerging powerful Military-Industrial Complex.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8y06NSBBRtY

What similar warning should now be promulgated about the emerging Paramilitary-Industrial Complex advocating a "No" vote in the Lisbon Treaty Referendum?

I refer, of course, to that unholy alliance between Sinn Fein & Libertas.

Rising electricity, gas & fuel prices - plus Carbon Tax?

The Sunday Business Post today reports that the ESB will be seeking an electricity price increase of at least 15% this autumn. Bord Gais already has a 19% increase proposal with the Energy Regulator.

http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqt=IRELAND-qqqm=news-qqqid=33383-qqqx=1.asp

High Petrol/Diesel prices, likely to continue to rise at the pumps, are also reflected in the price of home heating oil.

What political or public appetite exists for a set of new carbon taxes in this year’s budget?

With the media reporting gloom & doom, and all commentators in agreeemnt that house prices continue to fall, the feel-good factor is rapidly disappearing from the national psyche.

It’s hard to see the Govt making any meaningful move on carbon taxes, particularly as no-one will believe that they are intended to be revenue-neutral, given the large and growing exchequer deficit as other tax revenues fall short of projections.

On the other hand, unless something meaningful is done this year, there’s no hope of achieving the 15% emissions reduction target by 2012, as set out in the Programme for Govt..

Could this be the [very heavy] straw that breaks the Green camel’s back?

Wasteful Quangos

National Consumer Agency
The NCA should be renamed The National Survey Agency.
Since Biffo’s famous aside to Mary Coughlan, this agency has been revealed to be completely toothless when it comes to ensuring that the price benefits arising from the strength of the Euro are passed on to consumers.
Instead we’re offered the mind-blowing advice to “shop around” and reassured that the agency will continue to conduct and publish shopping surveys.
There may well be nothing the NCA can do. But, in that event, do we really need a separate agency to carry out such surveys? Surely this could be organised quite easily by the relevant Govt department, but with a substantially reduced overhead.

Financial Regulator
During the week, a Prime Time report involved some mystery shopping of financial institutions, using an 82-year old woman to seek advice about what to do with a substantial lump sum she had to invest. PermanentTSB landed themselves in hot water when one of their “financial advisors” gave her incorrect and misleading information.

Mary O’Dea, Consumer Director with the Financial Regulator was interviewed on Morning Ireland where it became clear that her agency don’t actually do any mystery shopping themselves. This is an extraordinary admission. Mystery Shopping is the most standard of techniques for a consumer agency, particularly where something intangible like “advice” is being sold.
It’s unbelievable that the Financial Regulator does not an ongoing programme of mystery shopping underway since its inception, providing regular reports to both the public and the financial institutions as to outcomes. This would serve to keep the institutions on their toes and provide some re-assurance to consumers.
Instead, they give us naff ads like “I don’t know what a tracker mortgage is”, and insist that all ads from financial institutions carry a long set of standard messages which, in reality, are virtually meaningless and are only there to remind us all that there is a Financial Regulator. But who actually reads that tiny fly-shit print at the bottom of a press or tv ad? Who actually believes Sean Moncrieff when he says “but no sneaky ones”? How carefully has he checked?

When it comes to enforcement, what exactly can the Financial Regulator do for consumers with a complaint against a financial institution that the Financial Ombudsman is not already charged with doing? I think it’s time to give Mary O’Dea the chop!

Office of Director of Corporate Enforcement
Then there’s the ODCE, which should have taken firm action against DCC & Jim Flavin following the Supreme Court decision that the Fyffes share sale had been a case of insider dealing. Instead, it was left to the IAIM to take a stand, and only then did ODCE do what is should have done years ago.

But what it does best is let the general public know it exists with a series of bloody stupid radio ads regarding the responsibilities of directors. The reality is that all these ads do is say “hey, we exist”.
Information regarding the responsibilities of directors would be best communicated through the appropriate industry bodies e.g. IBEC, ISME, SFA, through the legal and accountancy professions and through the companies office when a company is actually registered.
For a fraction of the cost of radio ads, detailed and relevant information could be delivered to the appropriate people.
The radio ads are just an ego-trip. Someone in the relevant Govt Dept should be asking “who gave these effers a marketing budget at all?”

Carbon Taxes? I don't think so.

There seems to be little doubt now that we’re in a serious economic downturn. While it’s not a recession, the implications for Govt Income/Expenditure are quite significant and will require difficult political choices.

This week, Davy Stockbrokers has produced some dramatically revised economic forecasts
- GNP growth: 1% in 2008, 2% in 2009
- New houses: 45k in 2008, 25k in 2009
- Commercial construction: 10% reduction in 2009
- Unemployment: 4.6% in 2007, 6.1% in 2008, 7% in 2009
- Exchequer Deficit: €1.6bn in 2007, €8.3bn in 2008, €10.3bn in 2009
- House Prices: -10% in 2008, -7% in 2009

Net Result:
Reduced tax inflows, particularly as construction/housing market slows dramatically.
Reduced tax inflows and increased benefit outflows as unemployment rises dramatically (+50% in 2 years).

Rising Energy Prices
Driven by global demand/output e.g. oil @ $135 and on a rising curve, Northern Ireland Electricity has announced a 14% price increase for July 2008, and BBC reports a further 15% increase expected later in the autumn (partially driven by weak sterling).
However, we too can expect rising electricity and gas prices, to go with the already rising petrol/diesel prices.
This will all add to inflation - pushing up the costs to households, business and increasing wage demands.

Demand/Expectations:
Expect a winter of discontent from the public sector, who already feel aggrieved that their previous national agreement failed to keep pace with inflation, compounded by the failure of Benchmarking Phase II to deliver anything for most public sector employees (excluding the cabinet).

The insatiable demand from that perennial black hole that is the Health Service is unlikely to abate. A permanent political banana skin.
And the perpetual under investment in the school infrastructure, exacerbated by a rising rather than falling intake in primary schools, will only add to the Govt’s woes.

Carbon Taxes?
Against that background, how likely is it that Biffo will be willing to add to the electorate’s woes by introducing Carbon Taxes, particularly against a background of already rapidly rising fuel/energy prices? With rising domestic bills and industry struggling, how much can the public bear?

But if Biffo does introduce Carbon Taxes, I’ll wager they won’t be “revenue neutral” , as promised by the Greens.
Biffo will see them as a way to reduce the projected Exchequer Deficit (€10.3bn 2009) by adding such carbon tax revenues to the general taxation pot, safe in the knowledge that the Greens will be a political lightning rod for most of the inevitable public backlash.

Green Party reaction?
How will the Greens react to such a(nother) betrayal?

Recent opinion polls show falling support for the Greens, the glás has gone off their early poll ratings in Govt. An early election, with little tangible achieved in Govt but many core policies & principles sacrificed, could be catastrophic for them.

I suspect they’ll swallow hard and perform another policy u-bend (they’re long past u-turns, it’s now flushed straight out of the system) to stay in office at any cost.

An interesting year ahead.

It's time we had real Farmers' Markets

On last night’s RTE Questions & Answers, the woman panellist from the Farming Indo/Ear to the Ground said that Minister for Food, Trevor Sargent, was only focused on the 1% of farmers engaged in organic farming, he’s doing nothing for the other 99%. Minister John Gormless defended Sargent on the basis that this is official Green Party policy. What else did farmers expect?
Official Message to 99% of the farming community from the Green Party: “Go f*ck yourselves!”

Farmers’ Markets:

Why can’t we have proper farmers’ markets, as they do in France, for example.
Every town/village there has a market at least once a week. Dozens of stalls, many local producers, some professional who tour the markets, some amateurs who only attend their local market. Stalls with a wide range of seasonal fruit and vegetables at competitive prices. Ordinary working people, living on a budget, buying their weekly supplies of same. Some specialist producers charging premium prices for organic etc, but the majority are pitched at thrifty housewives.

In the larger French towns/cities there are permanent halles, with dozens, perhaps hundreds, of stalls catering for every taste and every pocket. A fantastic variety of fresh and cooked foods to suit all palates and purses.

In Ireland, on the other hand, “Farmers’ Market” means elitist, lifestyle shopping for the better off.

There’s a busy “farmers” market every Sunday in the Peoples Park in Dun Laoghaire. A couple of stalls sell spotty, over-priced organic vegetables. But the majority are expensive artisan food stalls, some ethnic food sellers and a couple of knick-knack sellers.
How many of these stalls are actually run by real farmers? Very few would be my bet!

The market is well attended, mainly by the affluent middle classes and their offspring. It’s a Sunday outing combined with a bit of life-style browsing/shopping to make themselves feel better, mingling among a better class of green. Then they load up into their Chelsea tractors and head off to meet their friends for a bottle of chablis, with no thought as to whether it’s organic, just make sure it‘s chilled.

If you want to experience Green Food Policy in action, this is what it represents.

Let’s ditch the elitism and get real farmers selling non-organic produce at competitive prices to ordinary customers.