Irish Financial Markets - who's to blame?

Much of the commentary on the current crisis in financial markets is badly ill-informed e.g. there is very little similarity between the US sub-prime market and the Irish mortgage market.

Everyone seems happy to blame the crisis on the greed of the banks. That allows us, the great unwashed, forget about our own greed – who was it again who was going to be the major beneficiary of ever-rising house prices?

The government is more than happy to allow banks to take the blame. But who was there priming the pumps with tax reliefs/special schemes for first-time buyers (who were mainly investors!), investors and property developers?

Politicians (e.g. PDs), media commentators (e.g. Shane Ross) etc all shouted for more competition in the mortgage market. Enter HBOS (and motor-mouth Mark Duffy) giving 100% mortgages – all the domestic lenders are forced to follow suit, some to a much greater extent than others.

There’s plenty of blame to go around, so let’s share it out on a more equitable basis: the Government, the banks and the borrowers all need to share the load.

Damian Hirst - eat your heart out!

God, isn't it a depressing time? The country is officially in recession, the arse has fallen out of the stock market – particularly the financial sector to which I am heavily exposed – and my house is worth a couple of hundred thousand euros less than it was a year ago, and with further to fall. All thoughts of divorce must be deferred.

How to find a suitable scam to reverse these severe financial setbacks?

Then I read of Damian Hirst’s recent auction results at Sotheby’s – in two days he sold over stg£100m of his art, aka crap. His is the ultimate scam – it’s “conceptual art” so he doesn’t even need to make the damn things himself, merely come up with the idea and get some workshop to make the piece, to which he only has to append his signature.

So I headed into Fannin’s medical suppliers in town and bought a plastic skull. Then down to Wicklow where I collected several sacks of sheeps droppings – those rounded pebbles of shit they leave scattered like black currants on the grass.

Now I’m busy, rubber-gloved, sticking the little balls of sheep shit to the skull which I’m hopeful of exhibiting and selling for a small fortune, even if it’s just a serious piss-take on the works of Master conman Hirst. Of course, my artistic skull isn’t that pleasant to handle and, in hot weather, the whiff is pretty foul, but that shouldn’t deter the serious art poseur. Collectors too must be prepared to suffer for their art, after all.

Hirst’s diamond encrusted skull in titled “For the Love of God”. I’m sure my effort will evoke a similar response, perhaps with even more gusto.

Of course, to stage an “exhibition” I’ll need more than just one piece so I’m also working on a major formaldehyde exhibit, “Motion in poetry”. I thought that one of my turds suspended in a glass case would rival Hirst’s famous multi-million £ sharks. My inspiration was a former work colleague who, returning from the loo after a successful drop, would inform all and sundry “that one will be stalking the sewers”.

Naturally, such an installation will also require a truly specimen-class stool and my efforts to date have been frustrated by the piles. Routine inspection of the drop has, to date, failed to reveal a suitable specimen. Nevertheless, I remain confident that my increased intake of bran will, in due course, produce the goods.

After that I have in mind a series of projectile vomit paintings that should sell like hot cakes.

There’ll be no stopping me!

ABBA for President!

No, I’m not getting carried away by the success of Mamma Mia the movie, or on a wave of nostalgia for the fab four from Sweden.

Cecilia Ahern was widely quoted in the media during the past week, extolling the virtues of her father and opining that he would make a wonderful president.

President Mary McAleese isn’t due to leave the park until 2011, but it can never be too early to start an “Anyone but Bertie Ahern” campaign.

Footnote: An edited (by IT) version published as a letter in the Irish Times.

Lipstick on a pig - Irish Economic Management

In a letter published in today’s Irish Times, Dan O’Brien, Senior Editor – Economist Intelligence Unit, points out that the EU Commission's evaluation of Ireland's public finances management, contained in "The Public Finances in EMU" (2007), placed Ireland last among the 18 EU countries it assessed in its overall rankings.
On its specific measure of prudence in budget planning, Ireland not only ranked last, but uniquely failed even to register a score.

Strong and scary stuff, indeed! Why haven’t we heard this cited before – either by opposition spokesmen or the media?

Might this suggest that the Government’s claim to a record of competent management of the economy in the boom years is an attempt to put lipstick on a pig?

Pit-bulls in the White House?

What’s the difference between Dick Cheney and Sarah Palin? Lipstick?

The two-term Bush regime has never been short of pit-bulls. The rest of the world has learnt that this particular breed should have no place in the
White House.

It's time to declutter the Olympics.

A letter in today’s Irish Times makes a plea for Beach Volleyball to be taken more seriously as an Olympic sport. (roll eyes)

I freely confess that I include it with “sports” such as Synchorised Swimming, Synchronised Diving, Gymnastic Streamer Twirling etc in the long list of sports which, I feel, have reduced the Olympics to little more than a 5-ring circus.

Would you believe that gold medals were awarded in 302 events at the Beijing Olympics? How many of these events could be dropped without most people noticing?

A new process is urgently required to trim this growing circus to more manageable proportions and determine which sports should be allowed. Thankfully, the selection criteria are already described in the Olympic motto: "Citius, Altius, Fortius" (faster, higher, stronger). Any sport where victory does not depend on one or more of these three attributes should be automatically ineligible for inclusion in the Olympics.

This would reduce the number of events to something far more manageable and, most importantly, more credible as real sports.

Rugby ELVs & Lansdowne 10-year Tickets

What impact will Rugby Union’s Experimental Law Variations (ELVs) have on the success, or otherwise, on Ireland’s international team?
Thirteen changes in the existing rules will be effective for the 2009 6-Nations competition. Several of these ELVs result in the awarding of a free kick, rather than a penalty.
In the past several years, Ireland has been particularly dependent on the penalty-kicking ability of Ronan O’Gara to keep the scoreboard ticking over, but also to advance our forwards up the touchline. If, as now proposed, many of the infringements will only result in a free-kick, this source of points or territorial advance will be severely curtailed.
This comes at a time when our backline seems to have lost it’s cutting edge, it’s ability to breakthrough the opposition defence. Denis Hickey and David Humphries have retired, Ronan O’Gara couldn’t break out of a paper bag, Brian O’Driscoll has turned into a very good back-row forward and Gordon Darcy has completely lost his form for the past couple of years.
How will Ireland fare in this new rules environment? Where will the points come from?
Will the new Lansdowne Road become the venue for routine away victories for the Italians?
Will those who paid €15,000 for 10-year tickets wonder how they could have been so dazzled by the sun shining out of the backside of the Celtic Tiger?

And speaking of those expensive 10-year tickets, here’s the awful scenario that awaits the holders of those €15,000 duds:
Either Ireland are crap, routinely vying for the wooden spoon, and play to sub-capacity crowds in Lansdowne Road, where getting a ticket is no longer a problem, thus rendering the expense of the 10-year jobs a needless extravagance OR
Ireland play well, attracting more demand than the 50,000-seater Lansdowne can accommodate and the bigger rugby fixtures are routinely transferred to Croke park, to avail of the 83,000 capacity there.
I have no doubt that the GAA will be quite amenable to the extra revenue, having gotten over the moral issue of garrison games on sacred turf some time ago.
Either way I sleep soundly in my bed, thankful that I missed the opportunity to fork out €15,000.

Willie O'Dea & the Temple of Gloom

Defence Minister Willie O’Dea demonstrated his usual facility for vulgar abuse in his recent attack on Enda Kenny, following the opposition leader’s critique of Brian Cowen’s performance as Taoiseach in his first 100 days.

We’ll have to await the return of the Dail to see what the Grumbleboor of Tullamore will pull out of the hat to silence his growing band of critics.
It will hardly be a dove, too symbolic of peace for a man who clearly prefers aggression, but let’s hope it’s not just that tired old white rabbit named Willie.

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times. I can't believe it!

Bush & Co in the Kremlin

In a letter published in yesterday’s Irish Times, Senator David Norris highlighted the irony of President Bush lecturing the Russians that “bullying and intimidation are not acceptable ways to conduct foreign policy”, with regard to that country's actions in Georgia.

It doesn’t require any great leap of the imagination to see Messrs Bushkin, Cheynedvedev and Rumsfeldski acting and talking tough from the Kremlin, ably represented at the UN by Ambassador Boltonov.

3rd Level Fees - who should pay?

Education Minister Batt O’Keeffe has, predictably, stirred up a middle-class hornet’s nest with his proposal to review the possibility of a re-introduction of 3rd level college fees.

Clearly, many people will have planned their finances on the basis of not paying 3rd level college fees and the re-introduction of such fees could be a heavy financial burden for an extra 3-4 years per student.

The paradox is that many of those who object to paying 3rd level fees are the very people who have chosen to send their children to fee-paying secondary schools, rather than free schools. It is argued that the current system has merely allowed some parents to subsidise 6 years of secondary education by avoiding 3rd level fees.

This includes the use of grind schools, the ubiquitous “institutes” which enjoy a roaring trade in seeking to maximise Leaving Cert CAO points. In turn, this drives up the number of points required for entry toUniversity courses, creating a further barrier to those from disadvantaged backgrounds – the very people who were supposed to be the main beneficiaries of free 3rd level education.

In Dun Laoghaire, 3 “free” schools have closed since the introduction of free 2nd level education – CBS Eblana Avenue, Dominican Convent and, most recently, Presentation College Glasthule. That’s several hundred “free-school” places lost as local parents have chosen to send their children to alternative schools – mostly fee-paying.

So here’s my proposed solution: Pupils who attend free second-level schools will receive free 3rd level education as heretofore. Those who attend fee-paying schools and/or grind schools will, subject to a means test, be liable for 3rd level fees. Such fees might be capped at the same level as the fees paid in the student’s final year at 2nd level, depending on the parents annual income.

The passing of Ronnie Drew

Today’s media are filled with glowing tributes to Ronnie Drew whose cancer finally caught up on him. Ronnie was 73, but who would have believed he’d survive that long given the alcohol-fuelled and cigarette-fumed lifestyle “enjoyed” by The Dubliners for decades.

Ronnie was a genuine legend in his own lifetime, beloved by several generations of all classes. This despite being an often grumpy git who didn’t suffer fools.

With Ronnie passes the Irish ballad scene, which has been in steady decline since the heyday of the Dubliners. Now it survives in tourist-trap pubs in Ireland and in the thousands of “Irish Bars” throughout the world. Come to think of it – would any of those “Irish Bars” exist today if it wasn’t for the ethos created by the Dubliners?

Let’s hope the many musical tributes we’ll be hearing in the coming week will be Ronnie and the The Dubliners performing, rather than that poxy “Ballad of Ronnie Drew” recently recorded as a tribute by an array of musical “stars”. It’s a cringe-making effort which should now be consigned to the jukebox known as dustbin.

I’m sure Ronnie agrees – “hey Ronnie, knock once if you think I’m wrong.” There, I told you.

The wife was collecting a neighbour from St Vincent’s Private Hospital last Tuesday. While she was waiting, a very sick-looking man was brought through in a wheelchair. When she got home she told me she thought it was Ronnie Drew and, if it was, she didn’t think he was long for this world. Sadly, it looks like she was right – for once.

R.I.P.

A pet is for life.

My sister and her partner suffered the demise their much loved Ella earlier this year, a dog they’d had for about 12 years. There was much upset, the loss of Ella was a bereavement in the family, a traumatic experience.

They quickly determined to get a new dog and a 12-week old springer spaniel pup has now arrived. However, assuming that the new arrival is held, in due course, in similar affection to Ella, the trauma of the death of a well-loved pet will inevitably be repeated in 12-15 years time.

This got me to thinking that, in order to avoid such upset, it would make sense to choose a pet which will outlive you.
The giant Galápagos tortoise is one possibility, though taking it for a walk in the evening might be a tedious affair. But they live to 150+ years, and they’re quite a manageable size for the first 30-odd years.

But you get the gist of my proposal, it’s up to each individual to identify a long-living pet s/he will enjoy. It should be entirely possible Google “animal longevity”, with a view to finding a suitable pet which should outlive you.

And here’s the twist – rather than facing the inevitable loss of a pet, instead you’ll find yourself worrying about who’ll look after him/her when you’re gone!

Russian invasion of Georgia - questions for Ireland

Russia’s invasion of Georgia poses some interesting questions for Ireland’s policy on energy security and neutrality .

The need to ensure European energy security, currently heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas, is likely to mean that nuclear energy will become a much more attractive option than heretofore. Ireland cannot be immune from such considerations. Minister Ryan’s promised “debate” on nuclear energy may not prove to be the foregone conclusion he appears to think it is.

Ireland’s neutrality is copper-fastened by our commitment to only become involved in foreign missions which have been sanctioned by a resolution of the UN Security Council. Yet what is the basis for the moral authority of that body, as currently constituted?

China, France, Russia, UK & USA, the five permanent members of that Council, each holds a veto over any such resolution. China is in the dock over human rights in general and Tibet in particular. France has recently been indicted by the Rwandan government over its alleged complicity in the 1994 genocide in that country. Russia has demonstrated in Chechnya that it will be utterly ruthless in defending its own interests. Russia’s action in Georgia, to date, is only in the halfpenny place compared to Chechnya. UK & USA bypassed the UN for their 2003 invasion of Iraq, while the USA continues to defy international law through the ongoing operation of Guantanamo and its policy of extraordinary rendition.

Churchill’s famous dictum that “jaw jaw is better than war war” is still valid and it is undoubtedly worthwhile to have a forum such as the UN for “jaw jaw” among the major powers.

The moral authority of the Security Council must now be threadbare at best, it’s almost as if the lunatics have taken over the asylum Surely it’s time for Ireland to behave like a mature democracy and take its direction from our own moral compass?

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times.

Are you watering your lawn?

Two facts:

1. The Government has recently announced cutbacks in Departmental spending on advertising and PR, as part of a wider programme of cost-cutting measures.
2. This is one of the wettest summers on record, with typically 3-4 times the long-term average rain fall in June & July, with the forecast for August no better.

Yet we’re currently being treated to a series of radio ads warning people not to waste precious drinking water by watering their lawns.

It’s simply unbelievable that people would be watering lawns this summer, given the volume of rainfall the entire country has been drenched with. In fact, owners of lawns have been hard pressed to get a couple of dry days in which to cut their grass!

So what idiot decided to create and air these completely irrelevant ads at public expense? Is it simply another case of utter incompetence in the public service? Or is it some cynical civil servant showing two-fingers to the Government and, more pointedly, his/her own line minister?

Whichever it is, someone should be getting a boot up the backside.

PS: I've subsequently spotted some large billboard (48-sheet) posters promoting the same idiotic message.

Gordon Brown - rewrote "loyalty to leader" rules.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown & the Labour Party seem to be in a spot of bother, according to all the polls, and the political pundits in the UK seem to think that Foreign Secretary David Miliband has shown his hand as a putative successor.

Brown supporters in the Labour party have accused Miliband of disloyalty and now demand that he be demoted as punishment for this heinous crime.

This is laughable.

Almost from the day Labour won their third successive general election in May 2005, Brown and his acolytes plotted the overthrow of Tony Blair and used every available opportunity to undermine him and hasten his pre-announced but undated departure. Multiple plots and attempted political coups were evidenced before Blair finally went in June 2007.

So Brown himself rewrote the rules of the British Labour Party with regard to loyalty to the leader and perhaps he’s now about to reap the whirlwind.

Tony Blair must have mixed feelings about the current situation. No doubt he allows himself a wry smile as he watches Gordon discover that it’s not that easy to be PM, but Blair cannot be happy to see his party face a future, and quite possibly a long one, in opposition.

But I’d like to be a fly on the wall whenever Blair chats with Alistair Campbell about Gordon’s tribulations. The cup of human kindness might not exactly be overflowing, I suspect.

Brian Cowen - the Lisbon impasse!

Stephen Collins has shocked some Irish Times readers with his recent proposal that the Dail, rather than the electorate, should now ratify the Lisbon Treaty.

However, the likelihood of Brian Cowen taking the political risk involved seems even less than the likelihood of him actually getting a second referendum successfully past the post.

Finding our way out of the Lisbon impasse seems as far away as ever, particularly now that Mr Cowen has managed to further damage the cross-party political consensus in favour of the treaty.

Having been very late out of the traps, due to the distraction of Bertie Ahern’s extended lap of honour, followed by his own coronation and victory lap, Mr Cowen still felt it appropriate to give a very public slap in the face to Fine Gael, his largest political pro-Lisbon ally. That party’s natural resentment can be viewed in a new light, as analysis of the advertising spend on the campaign shows that Fianna Fail invested only a small fraction of the amount spent by Fine Gael.

Then the Taoiseach sought to exlcude the leaders of the two main pro-Lisbon opposition parties in the meetings with President Sarkozy, on his recent visit, thus relegating them to the same status as the unelected faction leaders on the NO side, who were each invited to make a three minute presentation at the French embassy. Only the public refusal of Messrs Kenny & Gilmore to accept this sidelining caused a last minute change of heart and averted a highly embarrassing diplomatic gaffe.

So when President Sarkozy came to call, he didn’t have to travel far to find the main reason for the failure of the referendum and the main obstacle to a successful re-run; it greeted him on the steps of Government Buildings.

Unless Brian Cowen demonstrates an ability to build rather than destroy political consensus, there’s no possibility of the Lisbon Treaty being ratified in Ireland.

Footnote: Published as a letter in the Irish Times but, sadly, they chose to edit out the Sarkozy bits (in italics) which I thought represented the most recent and relevant Lisbon concensus cock-up by Cowen.

Libertas political coup derails Lisbon Treaty

I think we’ve just witnessed a bloodless political coup, masterminded by the hitherto (politically) unknown Libertas organisation.

That coup successfully overthrew the aspiration of the democratically elected Government and both main opposition parties to pass the Lisbon Treaty. By doing so, it also set off a domino political crisis in 26 other democratic states which comprise the EU and many of which have already ratified the treaty through their parliaments.

A question which inevitably arises is whether Libertas is a genuinely Irish-born organisation or a front for some external party or government with an interest in derailing the EU project. Libertas was founded by businessman/oligarch Declan Ganley, but the political objectives and funding of that organisation are unknown at this point in time.

You have to ask who would be interested in scuppering the EU? Presumably parties intent on preventing the EU developing greater economic, political, diplomatic and, perhaps, military power on the world stage. The USA and Russia spring to mind.

Libertas founder Declan Ganley has strong connections in both countries. His company, Rivada Networks, provides telecommunications facilities to US-government agencies e.g. the national guard, police services, FEMA etc., while his early business career was built around the export of metals, particularly aluminium, from Russia.

It would have been easy to identify Ireland, the only country holding a referendum, as the weakest link in the Lisbon Treaty ratification chain. Is that what happened?

Another possible objective of the coup is the personal political ambition of Declan Ganley and the use of the Lisbon Treaty as a launch pad for his political career.

Ganley was the guest on Eamon Dunphy’s RTE programme yesterday where he revealed that, at the time Latvia declared independence from the USSR in August 1991, he was very friendly with members of the Latvian Popular Front, many of whom ended up in the first Latvian Government. His connections there arose from the fact that his company exported it’s Russian metals through Riga, the capital of Latvia.

Ganley expressed great admiration and enthusiasm for these Latvian patriots. When asked where these people were on the politcial spectrum, Ganley agreed that they were broadly conservative, with nationalists and some socialists in the mix. Much of Ganley's own rhetoric smacks of nationalism, patriotism, pride in irishness etc etc..

One suspects he's probably some brand of neo-liberal nationalist, but the fear is that Libertas might just stray into neo-fascism, given the political colour of some of its anti-Lisbon political bed-fellows. Not exactly a collection of dyed-in-the-wool democrats.

Mansergh defends 2003 Decentralisation "Plan"

Monday’s Irish Times “Head to Head” debate on the 2003 Decentralisation Plan , between Minister for State Martin Mansergh and AHCPS Dep.Gen.Sec. John Kelleher, provides some interesting insights into Government thinking in this area and its broader understanding of its own Spatial Strategy.

Defending the plan, Martin Mansergh paints an idyllic picture of civil servants decentralised to Tipperary town, informing us that they “are very happy to be within 15 minutes or less commuting distance from home”. The agency in question is the Immigration & Naturalisation Section of the Department of Justice. Minister Mansergh makes no reference to the commuting convenience, or otherwise, of the customers of this agency, whenever this might prove necessary. Customer convenience is clearly not a relevant consideration in Government thinking.
This lack of consideration for customers is confirmed by John Kelleher in his contribution on the topic, in which he illustrates a number of other examples of illogical relocations e.g. the Irish Prison Service to Longford, the Development Aid section of Foreign Affairs to Limerick, the Public Appointments Service to Youghal and the Equality Tribunal to Portarlington.

Minister Mansergh defends the lack of fit between the 2003 Decentralisation “Plan” and the 2002 National Spatial Strategy, explaining that “practically all the hubs and gateways already have civil service buildings, under previous decentralisation programmes.”
Yet a key objective of the 2002 National Spatial Strategy was to concentrate future development in a finite number of identified locations, the gateways and hubs, in order to achieve sufficient scale in those locations to support economic delivery of services and infrastructural investment.
Instead, the 2003 Decentralisation Plan proposes to scatter 10,300 civil servants to 53 locations, most of which are neither gateway nor hub, and Minister Mansergh is clearly happy to defend this “one for everyone in the audience” approach.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has identified reform of the public service and extraction of better value for money as a key political priority. The thinking demonstrated in Minister Mansergh’s contribution, allied to several additional drawbacks outlined by John Kelleher, wouldn’t inspire any great confidence in a happy outcome for either public servants or taxpayers.

Footnote: Published as a letter in The Irish Times.

Is Lisbon Treaty 98% of the EU Constitution?

Former French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing has claimed that the Lisbon Treaty is 98% identical to his failed EU Constitution.

“The EU Constitution has now been repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty.”

“The EU Constitution has not been repackaged as the Lisbon Treaty.”

Both the above sentences are more 98% identical, but their meanings are quite different.

Could that be what he means?

What's clear is that any major document could be modified by the inclusion or exclusion of key sentences, phrases or single words and its meaning can be substantially changed. So the "98%" claim can be essentially meaningless.

Sinn Féin & the Lisbon Treaty

What is the logic behind Sinn Fein’s opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, apart from that party’s normal ultra-nationalist anti-EU stance, which reflects its automatic denial of anything that may even appear to impinge on our sovereignty, as they choose to define it at any point in time?

Defence of our 12.5% Corporate Tax rate.
Didn’t Sinn Fein campaign for an increase in that rate as recently as the 2007 General Election? Are we now expected to be believe, 12 months later, that this Corporate Tax rate has become a core value for Sinn Fein? Who are they trying to fool? So the only question is this: are they just cynically scare-mongering or are they also trying to attract support and political donations from the business sector? Will Libertas leading lights feature on future lists of party donors?

Neutrality and Demilitarisation
The argument about the treaty requiring member countries to upgrade their armed forces would be better made by parties other than Sinn Fein. That party clearly had, in the past, a vested interest in keeping the security forces of this state in the weakest possible position. Doubtless there may well be some among their leadership/active membership who would wish to maintain that situation in the, hopefully unlikely, event of a return to “war”.
Sinn Fein’s concern for Irish neutrality and their desire to ensure that the Irish Army does not become involved in any EU adventures abroad is, in light of their own history, utterly lacking credibility. To be lectured thus by former terrorists is, frankly, FARCical.

Renegotiation of the Lisbon Treaty
Brian Cowen rightly made the point that this is far from the easy option so simplistically pushed by Sinn Fein and their fellow-travellers on the NO side.
As Cowen pointed out, if he goes back to Brussels with the list of problem areas being promoted by the NO campaigners, the other national leaders will be left scratching their heads while they say “but your tax position is protected by Lisbon, as is neutrality, abortion is unchanged, privatisation of public services remains a domestic policy decision etc etc etc”.
And let’s examine briefly the record of “ace negotiators” Sinn Fein: after 30+ years of mayhem and murder, for which that party must bear the greatest share of the blame.
What did they actually achieve?
(i) The territorial claim to Northern Ireland has been deleted from the Irish Constitution.
(ii) The constitutional position of NI as part of the United Kingdom is recognised by all parties, including the Irish Govt and Sinn Fein.
(iii) Ian Paisley (and now Peter Robinson, Baron Clontibret) becomes Prime Minister of Northern Ireland.
You couldn’t make it up! And these are the boyos who talk about renegotiating Lisbon? You wouldn’t send them out to buy a pint of milk.
Does anyone believe that the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Movement could have achieved LESS if left to pursue their peaceful approach for a decade? How prosperous would NI be now if they’d had 30 years of peace instead of Sinn Fein “negotiation”?